UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
Melbourne, Australia
9 Feb 2019
Lightweight
VS
95%
Vannata
5%
Mariano
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:55
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Vannata
Vannata is a strong favourite at 95% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 44 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Vannata has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 41 points.
Vannata has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Vannata's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Vannata
Mariano
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'1"
71"
Reach
+76"
34+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Vannata
Mariano
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.9
2.4
37.9
Performance Avg
0.0
41
Quality of Victory
0
70
Momentum Score
0
Vannata
Mariano
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
0.2
44%
Strike Accuracy
36%
3.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
2
0
Body
0
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance1
0Clinch0
18Ground2
Vannata
Mariano
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Vannata
Mariano
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
86
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/20 fights
Chin rating based on
2/12 fights
Vannata
Mariano
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
70
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Vannata
Mariano
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Vannata
Mariano
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
VannataMariano
Strike Zones
Vannata
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedMariano
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Vannata targets the head (90% of attacks) — Mariano absorbs 90% of strikes there
🎯Mariano targets the head (67% of attacks) — Vannata absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Vannata
RND
Mariano
0/0R00/0
Vannata · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Mariano · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Vannata · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Darrius FlowersRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Daniel ZellhuberRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
L · Sub · R1
Charles JourdainRating 2.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04
W · Dec · R3
Mike GrundyRating 4.5Decision
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · 2021-05
L · Dec · R3
King GreenRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan · 2020-08
Mariano · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
Claudio PuellesRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · 2019-09
L · Sub · R1
Lando VannataRating 2Submission
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva · 2019-02