METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick
Lincoln, USA
25 Aug 2018
Welterweight
VS
27%
Ellenberger
73%
Barberena
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:26
★ Official Result
Bryan BarberenawinsKO/TKOR1 · 2:26
def. Jake Ellenberger · UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Barberena
→
Actual result
Barberena wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Barberena is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 28 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Barberena has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Ellenberger's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Barberena has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
EllenbergerBarberena
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Ellenberger
Barberena
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'0"
71"
Reach
+72"
41
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Ellenberger
Barberena
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.7
43.3
45.7
Performance Avg
43.9
45
Quality of Victory
42
56
Momentum Score
76
Ellenberger
Barberena
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
2.7
42%
Strike Accuracy
52%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.4
5 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
17
2
Body
1
4
Leg
1
RangeRange
10Distance7
2Clinch2
0Ground10
Ellenberger
Barberena
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.0
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ellenberger
Barberena
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
10
4 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
7
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/46 fights
Chin rating based on
19/30 fights
Ellenberger
Barberena
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
76
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
Ellenberger
Barberena
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
56%
5
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ellenberger
Barberena
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.4
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
EllenbergerBarberena
Strike Zones
Ellenberger
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedBarberena
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ellenberger targets the head (50% of attacks) — Barberena absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Barberena targets the head (89% of attacks) — Ellenberger absorbs 89% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ellenberger
RND
Barberena
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Ellenberger · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Barberena · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Ellenberger · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Bryan BarberenaRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
L · KO · R1
Ben SaundersRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06
L · KO · R2
Mike PerryRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
L · KO · R1
Jorge MasvidalRating 1.5KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · 2016-12
W · KO · R1
Matt BrownRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07
Barberena · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Gerald MeerschaertRating 3.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Makhmud MuradovRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
L · Sub · R1
Gunnar NelsonRating 2.6Submission
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
L · Sub · R2
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 2.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · KO · R2
Robbie LawlerRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07