UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick
Lincoln, USA
25 Aug 2018
Welterweight
VS
27%
Ellenberger
73%
Barberena
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:26
JE
Jake Ellenberger
"The Juggernaut"
31 – 15
5'9"71" reachOrthodox41 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 16
Bryan
Bryan Barberena
"Bam Bam"
18 – 12
Well-Rounded4-fight slide37 yrsSouthpaw72" reach6'0"
CFR 43

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Barberena

Barberena is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 28 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Barberena has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Ellenberger's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Barberena has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Ellenberger
Barberena
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'0"
71"
Reach
+72"
41
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Ellenberger
Barberena
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.7
43.3
45.7
Performance Avg
43.9
45
Quality of Victory
42
56
Momentum Score
76
Ellenberger
Barberena
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
2.7
42%
Strike Accuracy
52%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.4
5 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
17
2
Body
1
4
Leg
1
RangeRange
10Distance7
2Clinch2
0Ground10
Ellenberger
Barberena
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.0
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ellenberger
Barberena
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
10
4 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
7
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/46 fights
Chin rating based on
19/30 fights
Ellenberger
Barberena
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
76
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
Ellenberger
Barberena
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
56%
5
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ellenberger
Barberena
Striking6.0 / 5.4Volume3.4 / 4.5Grappling1.5 / 2.0Wrestling1.1 / 1.4Submission1.0 / 1.1Pressure5.6 / 5.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.4
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
Ellenberger
Strike Zones
Barberena
Ellenberger
Attacking
6HEAD2BODY4LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
17HEAD1BODY1LEGS19 absorbed
Barberena
Attacking
17HEAD1BODY1LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD2BODY4LEGS12 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ellenberger targets the head (50% of attacks) — Barberena absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Barberena targets the head (89% of attacks) — Ellenberger absorbs 89% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ellenberger
RND
Barberena
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0

Ellenberger · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0105.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W2.1L4.5W5.0W5.5L4.3L1.8L5.2W2.1L5.5L5.4W1.5L2.8L1.5L1.9L2009-092012-022014-112017-042018-08
WinLossTrend

Barberena · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.5W5.5L5.2W4.7W6.8L5.0W6.6L5.0W5.5L4.9L4.5W5.5L4.5W4.9W5.5W2.9L2.6L6.5L3.8L2014-122017-042020-092022-122024-03
WinLossTrend

Ellenberger · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Bryan BarberenaRating 1.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
L · KO · R1
Ben SaundersRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06
L · KO · R2
Mike PerryRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
L · KO · R1
Jorge MasvidalRating 1.5
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · 2016-12
W · KO · R1
Matt BrownRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07

Barberena · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Gerald MeerschaertRating 3.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Makhmud MuradovRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
L · Sub · R1
Gunnar NelsonRating 2.6
Submission
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
L · Sub · R2
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 2.9
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · KO · R2
Robbie LawlerRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07

News & Media

Jake Ellenberger · Bryan Barberena
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