UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Brandao
Dublin, Ireland
19 Jul 2014
Welterweight
VS
57%
Nelson
43%
Cummings
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:48
Gunnar
Gunnar Nelson
"Gunni"
19 – 6
5'11"72" reachSwitch37 yrsSubmission Hunter
CFR 57
ZC
Zak Cummings
25 – 7
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak41 yrsSouthpaw75" reach6'0"
CFR 43

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Nelson

This is a genuine toss-up — Nelson at 57% vs Cummings at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Cummings throws more volume but Nelson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Nelson's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Nelson
Cummings
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
72"
Reach
+75"
37+
Age
41
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Nelson
Cummings
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.8
42.5
52.8
Performance Avg
53.3
46
Quality of Victory
41
61
Momentum Score
63
Nelson
Cummings
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.5
69%
Strike Accuracy
39%
1.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
3
2
Body
1
0
Leg
5
RangeRange
4Distance4
1Clinch5
2Ground0
Nelson
Cummings
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
6.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.2
4.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nelson
Cummings
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
82
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/25 fights
Chin rating based on
14/32 fights
Nelson
Cummings
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
63
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
Nelson
Cummings
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
60%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
8
Submission Wins
4
2
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nelson
Cummings
Striking1.3 / 3.4Volume2.9 / 4.6Grappling6.9 / 4.2Wrestling4.8 / 2.9Submission8.0 / 4.0Pressure7.5 / 6.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
6.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
4.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
8.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.3
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
Nelson
Strike Zones
Cummings
Nelson
Attacking
5HEAD2BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY5LEGS9 absorbed
Cummings
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY5LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD2BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nelson targets the head (71% of attacks) — Cummings absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Cummings targets the legs (56% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 56% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nelson
RND
Cummings
0/0R00/0

Nelson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.0W4.5W5.0W5.6W5.5L5.0W5.5L5.2W5.2W2.0L5.2W6.6L5.7L4.7W5.4W6.1L2012-092014-102017-032019-092025-03
WinLossTrend

Cummings · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.0W4.5W3.8L5.0W4.8W6.0L5.2W5.0W5.5L4.5W5.7W5.5L4.5W5.7W2013-082016-042018-052020-082023-04
WinLossTrend

Nelson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Bryan BarberenaRating 5.4
Submission
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
W · Dec · R3
Takashi SatoRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · 2022-03
L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · 2019-03

Cummings · Last 5

W · KO · R3
Ed HermanRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Alessio Di ChiricoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic · 2020-08
L · Dec · R3
Omari AkhmedovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · 2019-09
W · Sub · R3
Trevin GilesRating 5.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05
W · Dec · R3
Trevor SmithRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta · 2018-12

News & Media

Gunnar Nelson · Zak Cummings
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