UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
Montreal, Canada
25 Apr 2015
Women's Strawweight
VS
46%
Markos
54%
Daly
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
RM
Randa Markos
"Quiet Storm"
11 – 12
5'4"63" reachOrthodox40 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 17
AD
Aisling Daly
"Ais the Bash"
16 – 6
Well-Rounded38 yrsOrthodox64" reach5'2"
CFR 20

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Daly

This is a genuine toss-up — Markos at 46% vs Daly at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Daly has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.

Daly has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Markos's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Markos
Daly
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"+
Height
5'2"
63"
Reach
+64"
40
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Markos
Daly
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.7
20.0
34.0
Performance Avg
50.4
29
Quality of Victory
40
15
Momentum Score
70
Markos
Daly
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.5
42%
Strike Accuracy
58%
0.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
2
1
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance1
0Clinch4
4Ground0
Markos
Daly
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.2
2.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Markos
Daly
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
98
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/23 fights
Chin rating based on
3/22 fights
Markos
Daly
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
15
70
W · Dec · R3
L · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Markos
Daly
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
14%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Markos
Daly
Striking0.8 / 1.3Volume7.7 / 5.3Grappling3.2 / 5.2Wrestling2.2 / 3.6Submission1.4 / 5.0Pressure2.2 / 5.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.3
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
2.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
Markos
Strike Zones
Daly
Markos
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD3BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Daly
Attacking
2HEAD3BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Markos targets the head (83% of attacks) — Daly absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Daly targets the body (60% of attacks) — Markos absorbs 60% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Markos
RND
Daly
0/0R00/0

Markos · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.6L4.5W5.5L4.5W1.5L4.8W6.7L4.5W5.5L5.1W5.5L4.5W5.6L2.7L5.5L4.0L4.5W2014-122017-022019-072021-052021-10
WinLossTrend

Daly · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.0W5.5L4.5W2014-122015-042015-10
WinLossTrend

Markos · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Livinha SouzaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · 2021-10
L · R1
Luana PinheiroRating 4
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Prochazka · 2021-05
L · Dec · R3
Kanako MurataRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos Anjos · 2020-11
L · Sub · R1
Mackenzie DernRating 2.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
L · Dec · R3
Amanda RibasRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03

Daly · Last 3

W · Dec · R3
Ericka AlmeidaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smolka · 2015-10
L · Dec · R3
Randa MarkosRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi · 2015-04
W · Sub · R1
Alex ChambersRating 5
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champion Will Be Crowned Finale · 2014-12

News & Media

Randa Markos · Aisling Daly
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