Edgar Chairez vs CJ Vergara — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg

Mexico City, Mexico

29 Mar 2025

Flyweight

62%

Chairez

38%

Vergara

Win Probability

Submission

Round 1 · 2:30

Edgar Chairez

"Puro Chicali"

13 – 6

5'7"71" reachOrthodox30 yrs3-fight win streakSubmission Hunter

CFR 59

CJ Vergara

12 – 7

Well-Rounded3-fight slide35 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'6"

CFR 36

★ Official Result

Edgar ChairezwinsSubmissionR1 · 2:30

def. CJ Vergara · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Chairez

→

Actual result

Chairez wins

Submission · R1

Pre-fight analysis

Chairez holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Vergara has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 23 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Chairez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Risk flags

Vergara has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

ChairezVergara

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Chairez

Vergara

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'7"+

Height

5'6"

71"+

Reach

68"

30+

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Chairez

Vergara

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

58.5

35.6

54.7

Performance Avg

36.0

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Chairez

Vergara

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

1.3

/ 10

4.1

/ 10

7.3

Style: Pressure

3.5

3.3

Style: Volume

6.1

0 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

1 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

7Distance6

1Clinch0

0Ground0

Chairez

Vergara

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

6.6

/ 10

1.6

/ 10

4.6

Wrestling Style (/10)

1.1

7.5

Submission Style (/10)

0.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Chairez

Vergara

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Never stopped

Verdict

KO risk

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

—

KO round context

Avg R1.0 stoppage

—

Last KO loss

1 fight ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

8/19 fights

Chin rating based on

8/19 fights

Chairez

Vergara

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

3-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

3-fight 📉 slide

Upcoming

W · Sub · R1

W · Dec · R3

W · Sub · R1

L · Dec · R3

Last 5

L · Sub · R1

L · KO · R1

L · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R3

W · KO · R2

Chairez

Vergara

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

75%

33%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Chairez

Vergara

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

1.3

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

4.1

6.6

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

1.6

4.6

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

1.1

7.5

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

7.3

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

3.5

3.3

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

6.1

Chairez

Strike Zones

Vergara

Chairez

Attacking

8 landed

Absorbing

6 absorbed

Vergara

Attacking

6 landed

Absorbing

8 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Chairez targets the head (100% of attacks) — Vergara absorbs 100% of strikes there

🎯Vergara targets the legs (83% of attacks) — Chairez absorbs 83% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Chairez

RND

Vergara

0/0R00/0

Chairez · Last 5

Upcoming

Tim Elliott

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · 2026-09

W · Sub · R1

Bruno Silva

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06

W · Dec · R3

Felipe Bunes

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02

W · Sub · R1

CJ Vergara

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03

L · Dec · R3

Joshua Van

Decision

UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09

Vergara · Last 5

L · Sub · R1

Edgar Chairez

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03

L · KO · R1

Ramazan Temirov

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10

L · Dec · R3

Asu Almabayev

Decision

UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03

W · Dec · R3

Vinicius Salvador

Decision

UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07

W · KO · R2

Daniel Lacerda

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03

News & Media

Edgar Chairez · CJ Vergara

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