UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg
Mexico City, Mexico
29 Mar 2025
Flyweight
VS
61%
Chairez
39%
Vergara
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:30
Edgar
Edgar Chairez
"Puro Chicali"
13 – 6
5'7"71" reachOrthodox30 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 55
CJ
CJ Vergara
12 – 7
Well-Rounded3-fight slide34 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'6"
CFR 36

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Chairez

Chairez holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Vergara has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Vergara has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Vergara has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Chairez
Vergara
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'6"
71"+
Reach
68"
30+
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Chairez
Vergara
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.4
35.6
50.6
Performance Avg
36.0
44
Quality of Victory
35
54
Momentum Score
30
Chairez
Vergara
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
2.5
50%
Strike Accuracy
56%
1.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.1
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
5
RangeRange
7Distance6
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Chairez
Vergara
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
6.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
4.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Chairez
Vergara
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
50
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/19 fights
Chin rating based on
8/19 fights
Chairez
Vergara
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
54
30
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Chairez
Vergara
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
33%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Chairez
Vergara
Striking1.2 / 4.1Volume3.9 / 6.1Grappling6.1 / 1.6Wrestling4.3 / 1.1Submission6.7 / 0.0Pressure6.5 / 3.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
6.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
4.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
6.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
3.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
Chairez
Strike Zones
Vergara
Chairez
Attacking
8HEAD0BODY0LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY5LEGS6 absorbed
Vergara
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY5LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD0BODY0LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Chairez targets the head (100% of attacks) — Vergara absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Vergara targets the legs (83% of attacks) — Chairez absorbs 83% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Chairez
RND
Vergara
0/0R00/0

Chairez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.9
0107.2L5.0W7.1L5.0W5.1W2023-072024-022024-092025-032026-02
WinLossTrend

Vergara · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0106.3L5.0W4.5L5.2W4.5W6.6L3.3L2.5L2021-112022-102023-072024-102025-03
WinLossTrend

Chairez · Last 5

Upcoming
Bruno Silva
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Felipe BunesRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
W · Sub · R1
CJ VergaraRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Joshua VanRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
W · Sub · R1
Daniel LacerdaRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02

Vergara · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Edgar ChairezRating 2.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · KO · R1
Ramazan TemirovRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Asu AlmabayevRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Vinicius SalvadorRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · KO · R2
Daniel LacerdaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03

News & Media

Edgar Chairez · CJ Vergara
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