UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
Las Vegas, USA
30 Dec 2016
Flyweight
VS
59%
Smolka
41%
Borg
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
LS
Louis Smolka
"Da Last Samurai"
17 – 9
5'9"68" reachOrthodox34 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 27
RB
Ray Borg
"The Tazmexican Devil"
13 – 5
Well-Rounded32 yrsOrthodox63" reach5'4"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Smolka

This is a genuine toss-up — Smolka at 59% vs Borg at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Smolka has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.

Striking split: Smolka throws more volume but Borg connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Smolka's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Smolka
Borg
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'4"
68"+
Reach
63"
34
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Smolka
Borg
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.6
18.5
46.5
Performance Avg
42.5
46
Quality of Victory
32
60
Momentum Score
89
Smolka
Borg
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
0.6
51%
Strike Accuracy
56%
5.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.2
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
3
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance2
2Clinch1
0Ground0
Smolka
Borg
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.5
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.0
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Smolka
Borg
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
80
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/26 fights
Chin rating based on
12/18 fights
Smolka
Borg
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
89
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R5
Smolka
Borg
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
29%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Smolka
Borg
Striking5.9 / 1.2Volume2.9 / 6.9Grappling2.6 / 4.0Wrestling1.8 / 2.8Submission2.5 / 2.9Pressure6.7 / 3.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.2
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.0
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.8
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.8
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.9
Smolka
Strike Zones
Borg
Smolka
Attacking
6HEAD1BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Borg
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD1BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Smolka targets the head (86% of attacks) — Borg absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Borg targets the head (100% of attacks) — Smolka absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Smolka
RND
Borg
0/0R00/0

Smolka · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0104.5W5.5L5.5W4.5W5.2W5.2W2.4L5.5L5.6L5.7L5.9W1.7L5.0W1.5L5.2W1.5L4.8L2014-012016-072018-112021-122022-05
WinLossTrend

Borg · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.5L5.0W5.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W4.0L5.5L4.5W4.5W6.2L2014-042015-082017-032019-072020-05
WinLossTrend

Smolka · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Davey GrantRating 4.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05
L · KO · R1
Vince MoralesRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
W · KO · R2
Jose QuinonezRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori · 2020-12
L · Sub · R1
Casey KenneyRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · 2020-05
W · KO · R1
Ryan MacDonaldRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09

Borg · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Ricky SimonRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira · 2020-05
W · Dec · R3
Rogerio BontorinRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · 2020-02
W · Dec · R3
Gabriel SilvaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Edwards · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
Casey KenneyRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje · 2019-03
L · Sub · R5
Demetrious JohnsonRating 4
Submission
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · 2017-10

News & Media

Louis Smolka · Ray Borg
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