METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
Las Vegas, USA
30 Dec 2016
Flyweight
VS
59%
Smolka
41%
Borg
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Ray BorgwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Louis Smolka · UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Smolka
→
Actual result
Borg wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Smolka at 59% vs Borg at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Smolka has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Risk flags
Smolka's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SmolkaBorg
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Smolka
Borg
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'4"
68"+
Reach
63"
35
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Smolka
Borg
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.6
18.5
46.5
Performance Avg
42.5
46
Quality of Victory
32
60
Momentum Score
89
Smolka
Borg
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.9
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
6.7
Style: Pressure
3.8
2.9
Style: Volume
6.9
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
3
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance2
2Clinch1
0Ground0
Smolka
Borg
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.6
/ 10
4.0
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.8
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
2.9
2
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Smolka
Borg
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
80
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/26 fights
Chin rating based on
12/18 fights
Smolka
Borg
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
89
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R5
Smolka
Borg
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
29%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Smolka
Borg
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.2
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.0
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.8
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.8
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.9
SmolkaBorg
Strike Zones
Smolka
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedBorg
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Smolka targets the head (86% of attacks) — Borg absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Borg targets the head (100% of attacks) — Smolka absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Smolka
RND
Borg
0/0R00/0
Smolka · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Davey GrantKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05
L · KO · R1
Vince MoralesKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
W · KO · R2
Jose QuinonezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori · 2020-12
L · Sub · R1
Casey KenneySubmission
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · 2020-05
W · KO · R1
Ryan MacDonaldKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09
Borg · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Ricky SimonDecision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira · 2020-05
W · Dec · R3
Rogerio BontorinDecision
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · 2020-02
W · Dec · R3
Gabriel SilvaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Edwards · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
Casey KenneyDecision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje · 2019-03
L · Sub · R5
Demetrious JohnsonSubmission
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · 2017-10