UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega
Fresno, USA
9 Dec 2017
Bantamweight
VS
18%
Saenz
82%
Dvalishvili
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
FS
Frankie Saenz
13 – 7
5'6"66" reachOrthodox45 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 14
Merab
Merab Dvalishvili
"The Machine"
21 – 5
Well-Rounded35 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'6"
CFR 60

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Dvalishvili

Dvalishvili is a strong favourite at 82% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 47 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Dvalishvili throws more volume but Saenz connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Saenz's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Saenz
Dvalishvili
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
5'6"
66"
Reach
+68"
45
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Saenz
Dvalishvili
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.7
60.4
35.0
Performance Avg
53.2
25
Quality of Victory
34
75
Momentum Score
100
Saenz
Dvalishvili
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.4
48%
Strike Accuracy
43%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.4
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
9
6
Body
2
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance7
8Clinch4
1Ground0
Saenz
Dvalishvili
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
2.6
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.7
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Saenz
Dvalishvili
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
84
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/20 fights
Chin rating based on
17/26 fights
Saenz
Dvalishvili
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
75
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Saenz
Dvalishvili
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
14%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
12

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Saenz
Dvalishvili
Striking1.0 / 2.4Volume9.0 / 8.5Grappling2.4 / 2.6Wrestling1.7 / 1.8Submission0.0 / 0.7Pressure1.5 / 3.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.4
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.7
1.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
9.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
Saenz
Strike Zones
Dvalishvili
Saenz
Attacking
10HEAD6BODY1LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD2BODY0LEGS11 absorbed
Dvalishvili
Attacking
9HEAD2BODY0LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD6BODY1LEGS17 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Saenz targets the head (59% of attacks) — Dvalishvili absorbs 59% of strikes there
🎯Dvalishvili targets the head (82% of attacks) — Saenz absorbs 82% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Saenz
RND
Dvalishvili
0/0R00/0

Saenz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0104.5W4.5W4.5W5.5L4.0L5.5L5.8W4.5W2.3L4.5L2014-082015-122017-122020-08
WinLossTrend

Dvalishvili · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5L4.7L4.5W4.9W4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.2W5.0W6.0W6.0W6.0W5.8W6.8W6.0W7.0L2017-122020-062023-032025-102025-12
WinLossTrend

Saenz · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Jonathan MartinezRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan · 2020-08
L · KO · R1
Marlon VeraRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Henry BrionesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman · 2018-05
W · Dec · R3
Merab DvalishviliRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · 2017-12
L · Dec · R3
Augusto MendesRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01

Dvalishvili · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Petr YanRating 7
Decision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R5
Cory SandhagenRating 6
Decision
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · Sub · R3
Sean O'MalleyRating 6.8
Submission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Umar NurmagomedovRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Dec · R5
Sean O'MalleyRating 6
Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09

News & Media

Frankie Saenz · Merab Dvalishvili
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