UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
Las Vegas, USA
16 Dec 2023
Featherweight
VS
57%
Fili
43%
Almeida
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:32
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Fili
This is a genuine toss-up — Fili at 57% vs Almeida at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Almeida has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Fili's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Almeida has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Fili
Almeida
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
74"+
Reach
71"
35
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Fili
Almeida
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
48.8
36.9
42.0
Performance Avg
35.8
35
Quality of Victory
38
100
Momentum Score
33
Fili
Almeida
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.6
37%
Strike Accuracy
37%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
1
3
Body
0
1
Leg
9
RangeRange
8Distance10
0Clinch0
12Ground0
Fili
Almeida
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Fili
Almeida
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
42
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/38 fights
Chin rating based on
6/20 fights
Fili
Almeida
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
33
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
Fili
Almeida
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
31%
50%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
9
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Fili
Almeida
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
6.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
FiliAlmeida
Strike Zones
Fili
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedAlmeida
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Fili targets the head (80% of attacks) — Almeida absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Almeida targets the legs (90% of attacks) — Fili absorbs 90% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Fili
RND
Almeida
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Fili · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Almeida · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Fili · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jose DelgadoRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Christian RodriguezRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · Sub · R1
Melquizael CostaRating 2.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Cub SwansonRating 5Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
L · KO · R1
Dan IgeRating 2.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
Almeida · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Michael Aswell Jr.Rating 2.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Danny SilvaRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Timmy CuambaRating 4.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira · 2024-06
L · KO · R1
Andre FiliRating 2.2KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R2
Pat SabatiniRating 3.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06