METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
Las Vegas, USA
16 Dec 2023
Featherweight
VS
57%
Fili
43%
Almeida
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:32
★ Official Result
Andre FiliwinsKO/TKOR1 · 3:32
def. Lucas Almeida · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Fili
→
Actual result
Fili wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Fili at 57% vs Almeida at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Fili's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Almeida has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
FiliAlmeida
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Fili
Almeida
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
74"+
Reach
71"
36
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Fili
Almeida
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
48.4
36.9
41.2
Performance Avg
35.8
35
Quality of Victory
38
100
Momentum Score
33
Fili
Almeida
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.1
/ 10
5.7
/ 10
3.6
Style: Pressure
4.5
6.5
Style: Volume
4.7
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
1
3
Body
0
1
Leg
9
RangeRange
8Distance10
0Clinch0
12Ground0
Fili
Almeida
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.7
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Fili
Almeida
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
42
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/38 fights
Chin rating based on
6/20 fights
Fili
Almeida
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
33
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
Fili
Almeida
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
31%
50%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
9
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Fili
Almeida
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
FiliAlmeida
Strike Zones
Fili
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedAlmeida
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Fili targets the head (80% of attacks) — Almeida absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Almeida targets the legs (90% of attacks) — Fili absorbs 90% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Fili
RND
Almeida
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Fili · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Vinicius OliveiraKO/TKO
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Melquizael CostaSubmission
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Almeida · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Michael Aswell Jr.KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
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UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira · 2024-06
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Andre FiliKO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R2
Pat SabatiniSubmission
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