UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
Las Vegas, USA
5 Mar 2022
Featherweight
VS
45%
Barboza
55%
Mitchell
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Mitchell
This is a genuine toss-up — Barboza at 45% vs Mitchell at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Barboza throws more volume but Mitchell connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Barboza's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Mitchell has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Barboza
Mitchell
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
75"+
Reach
70"
40
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Barboza
Mitchell
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.9
55.7
46.3
Performance Avg
48.6
40
Quality of Victory
31
60
Momentum Score
100
Barboza
Mitchell
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.6
46%
Strike Accuracy
55%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.6
9 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
12
1
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance2
0Clinch0
1Ground11
Barboza
Mitchell
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.0
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.8
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Barboza
Mitchell
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
54
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/38 fights
Chin rating based on
13/22 fights
Barboza
Mitchell
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
Barboza
Mitchell
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
22%
9
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
9
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Barboza
Mitchell
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.6
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.8
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.7
BarbozaMitchell
Strike Zones
Barboza
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedMitchell
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Barboza targets the head (50% of attacks) — Mitchell absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Mitchell targets the head (92% of attacks) — Barboza absorbs 92% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Barboza
RND
Mitchell
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Barboza · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Mitchell · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Barboza · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Jalin TurnerRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Drakkar KloseRating 6.5Decision
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
L · Dec · R5
Lerone MurphyRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
W · Dec · R5
Sodiq YusuffRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
W · KO · R1
Billy QuarantilloRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
Mitchell · Last 5
Upcoming
Victor HenryUFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Said NurmagomedovRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · Sub · R2
Jean SilvaRating 4.3Submission
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · KO · R3
Kron GracieRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · KO · R1
Josh EmmettRating 1.6KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12