UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos
Las Vegas, USA
5 Nov 2022
Women's Strawweight
VS
46%
Rodriguez
54%
Lemos
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 0:54
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Lemos
This is a genuine toss-up — Rodriguez at 46% vs Lemos at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Rodriguez throws more volume but Lemos connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Rodriguez's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Lemos has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Rodriguez
Lemos
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"+
Height
5'4"
65"
Reach
65"
39
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Rodriguez
Lemos
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
48.6
56.2
41.7
Performance Avg
49.6
34
Quality of Victory
43
83
Momentum Score
85
Rodriguez
Lemos
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.1
48%
Strike Accuracy
56%
3.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
8
1
Body
2
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance10
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Rodriguez
Lemos
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.8
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Rodriguez
Lemos
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
48
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
14 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/23 fights
Chin rating based on
15/21 fights
Rodriguez
Lemos
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
83
85
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Rodriguez
Lemos
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
56%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Rodriguez
Lemos
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.5
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.2
3.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.7
6.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
RodriguezLemos
Strike Zones
Rodriguez
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedLemos
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Rodriguez targets the head (67% of attacks) — Lemos absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Lemos targets the head (80% of attacks) — Rodriguez absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Rodriguez
RND
Lemos
0/0R00/0
Rodriguez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Lemos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Rodriguez · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Gillian RobertsonRating 4KO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
Iasmin LucindoRating 6.4Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Jessica AndradeRating 6.3Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R2
Michelle Waterson-GomezRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09
L · Dec · R3
Virna JandirobaRating 6.2Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
Lemos · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Gillian RobertsonRating 6.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
Tatiana SuarezRating 7.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Iasmin LucindoRating 5.4Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · Sub · R2
Virna JandirobaRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
W · Dec · R3
Mackenzie DernRating 5.7Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02