UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
Las Vegas, USA
10 Jul 2021
Flyweight
VS
95%
Zhumagulov
5%
Rivera
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:02
ZZ
Zhalgas Zhumagulov
14 – 9
5'4"66" reachSwitch37 yrs4-fight slideSubmission Hunter
CFR 33
JR
Jerome Rivera
"Renegade"
10 – 6
Well-Rounded4-fight slide31 yrsSouthpaw72" reach5'10"
CFR 2

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Zhumagulov

Zhumagulov is a strong favourite at 95% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 31 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Zhumagulov has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 54 points.

Zhumagulov has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Zhumagulov's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Rivera has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Zhumagulov
Rivera
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'10"
66"
Reach
+72"
37
Age
+31
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Zhumagulov
Rivera
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
33.0
1.8
38.1
Performance Avg
0.0
54
Quality of Victory
0
26
Momentum Score
0
Zhumagulov
Rivera
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
1.1
37%
Strike Accuracy
26%
0.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
2
4
Body
7
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
10Distance11
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Zhumagulov
Rivera
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.6
8.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
5.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Zhumagulov
Rivera
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
42
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/23 fights
Chin rating based on
4/16 fights
Zhumagulov
Rivera
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
0
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Zhumagulov
Rivera
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Zhumagulov
Rivera
Striking0.3 / 0.0Volume0.3 / 0.0Grappling8.0 / 0.0Wrestling5.6 / 0.0Submission10.0 / 0.0Pressure7.4 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
0.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Zhumagulov
Strike Zones
Rivera
Zhumagulov
Attacking
4HEAD4BODY2LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD7BODY2LEGS11 absorbed
Rivera
Attacking
2HEAD7BODY2LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD4BODY2LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Zhumagulov targets the head (40% of attacks) — Rivera absorbs 40% of strikes there
🎯Rivera targets the body (64% of attacks) — Zhumagulov absorbs 64% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Zhumagulov
RND
Rivera
0/0R00/0

Zhumagulov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.5L6.8L5.0W3.2L5.6L6.4L7.1L2020-072021-072022-062023-06
WinLossTrend

Rivera · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.1
0103.0L5.5L2.3L1.5L2020-092021-012021-022021-07
WinLossTrend

Zhumagulov · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Joshua VanRating 7.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · 2023-06
L · Dec · R3
Charles JohnsonRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · 2022-11
L · Dec · R3
Jeff MolinaRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · 2022-06
L · KO · R1
Manel KapeRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
W · Sub · R1
Jerome RiveraRating 5
Submission
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07

Rivera · Last 4

L · Sub · R1
Zhalgas ZhumagulovRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
L · KO · R1
Ode OsbourneRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · 2021-02
L · Dec · R3
Francisco FigueiredoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · 2021-01
L · KO · R2
Tyson NamRating 3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09

News & Media

Zhalgas Zhumagulov · Jerome Rivera
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