METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
Las Vegas, USA
10 Jul 2021
Flyweight
VS
96%
Zhumagulov
4%
Rivera
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:02
★ Official Result
Zhalgas ZhumagulovwinsSubmissionR1 · 2:02
def. Jerome Rivera · UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Zhumagulov
→
Actual result
Zhumagulov wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Zhumagulov is a strong favourite at 96% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 32 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Zhumagulov has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 54 points.
Risk flags
Zhumagulov's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rivera has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ZhumagulovRivera
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Zhumagulov
Rivera
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'10"
66"
Reach
+72"
38
Age
+31
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Zhumagulov
Rivera
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
33.0
1.2
38.1
Performance Avg
0.0
54
Quality of Victory
0
26
Momentum Score
0
Zhumagulov
Rivera
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.3
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
7.4
Style: Pressure
0.0
0.3
Style: Volume
0.0
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
2
4
Body
7
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
10Distance11
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Zhumagulov
Rivera
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
8.0
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
5.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
10.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Zhumagulov
Rivera
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
42
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/23 fights
Chin rating based on
4/16 fights
Zhumagulov
Rivera
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
0
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Zhumagulov
Rivera
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Zhumagulov
Rivera
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
0.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
ZhumagulovRivera
Strike Zones
Zhumagulov
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedRivera
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Zhumagulov targets the head (40% of attacks) — Rivera absorbs 40% of strikes there
🎯Rivera targets the body (64% of attacks) — Zhumagulov absorbs 64% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Zhumagulov
RND
Rivera
0/0R00/0
Zhumagulov · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
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L · KO · R1
Manel KapeKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
W · Sub · R1
Jerome RiveraSubmission
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
Rivera · Last 4
L · Sub · R1
Zhalgas ZhumagulovSubmission
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
L · KO · R1
Ode OsbourneKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · 2021-02
L · Dec · R3
Francisco FigueiredoDecision
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L · KO · R2
Tyson NamKO/TKO
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