UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
Houston, USA
21 Feb 2026
Flyweight
VS
72%
Coria
28%
Gurule
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Alden
Alden Coria
"Cobra"
12 – 3
5'8"67" reachOrthodox28 yrs2-fight win streakVolume Striker
CFR 70
Luis
Luis Gurule
"Grim"
11 – 3
Well-Rounded32 yrsOrthodox64" reach5'5"
CFR 28

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Coria

Coria is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Coria has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.

Striking split: Gurule throws more volume but Coria connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Coria
Gurule
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'5"
67"+
Reach
64"
28+
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Coria
Gurule
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
69.6
27.7
62.5
Performance Avg
25.0
38
Quality of Victory
25
100
Momentum Score
28
Coria
Gurule
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
2.6
47%
Strike Accuracy
45%
7.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
23
Head
19
7
Body
5
3
Leg
3
RangeRange
32Distance25
1Clinch2
0Ground0
Coria
Gurule
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Coria
Gurule
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
74
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
2/15 fights
Chin rating based on
4/14 fights
Coria
Gurule
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
28
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Coria
Gurule
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Coria
Gurule
Striking7.0 / 0.5Volume6.0 / 8.5Grappling1.2 / 2.4Wrestling0.8 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure6.5 / 0.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
Coria
Strike Zones
Gurule
Coria
Attacking
23HEAD7BODY3LEGS33 landed
Absorbing
19HEAD5BODY3LEGS27 absorbed
Gurule
Attacking
19HEAD5BODY3LEGS27 landed
Absorbing
23HEAD7BODY3LEGS33 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Coria targets the head (70% of attacks) — Gurule absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Gurule targets the head (70% of attacks) — Coria absorbs 70% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Coria
RND
Gurule
0/0R00/0

Coria · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0106.9W4.5W2025-092026-02
WinLossTrend

Gurule · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0103.6L6.4L7.2L4.5W2025-042025-092026-022026-05
WinLossTrend

Coria · Last 2

W · Dec · R3
Luis GuruleRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
W · KO · R3
Alessandro CostaRating 6.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09

Gurule · Last 4

W · Dec · R3
Daniel BarezRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Alden CoriaRating 7.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Jesus AguilarRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · KO · R2
Ode OsbourneRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04

News & Media

Alden Coria · Luis Gurule
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