METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
20 Jan 2021
Middleweight
VS
61%
Akhmedov
39%
Breese
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:41
★ Official Result
Omari AkhmedovwinsSubmissionR2 · 1:41
def. Tom Breese · UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Akhmedov
→
Actual result
Akhmedov wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Akhmedov holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Breese has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Breese has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Breese has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Akhmedov's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Breese has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
AkhmedovBreese
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Akhmedov
Breese
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'3"
73"
Reach
73"
38
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Akhmedov
Breese
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
30.2
19.7
47.0
Performance Avg
56.8
36
Quality of Victory
53
100
Momentum Score
46
Akhmedov
Breese
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.9
2.3
34%
Strike Accuracy
54%
3.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Akhmedov
Breese
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.5
/ 10
0.5
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.3
1.1
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Akhmedov
Breese
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
64
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/27 fights
Chin rating based on
8/15 fights
Akhmedov
Breese
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
46
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Akhmedov
Breese
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
80%
2
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Akhmedov
Breese
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.3
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
6.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
AkhmedovBreese
Strike Zones
Akhmedov
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedBreese
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Akhmedov targets the head (100% of attacks) — Breese absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Akhmedov
RND
Breese
0/0R00/0
Akhmedov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Breese · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Akhmedov · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 5.5Decision
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
W · Sub · R2
Tom BreeseRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · 2021-01
L · Dec · R3
Chris WeidmanRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · 2020-08
W · Dec · R3
Ian HeinischRating 4.5Decision
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · 2019-12
W · Dec · R3
Zak CummingsRating 4.9Decision
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · 2019-09
Breese · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Omari AkhmedovRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · 2021-01
W · KO · R1
KB BhullarRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · 2020-10
L · KO · R1
Brendan AllenRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo · 2020-02
W · KO · R1
Daniel KellyRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · 2018-05
L · Dec · R3
Sean StricklandRating 6.6Decision
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06