METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
20 Jan 2021
Middleweight
VS
49%
Akhmedov
51%
Breese
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:41
★ Official Result
Omari AkhmedovwinsSubmissionR2 · 1:41
def. Tom Breese · UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Breese
→
Actual result
Akhmedov wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Akhmedov at 49% vs Breese at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Breese has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Risk flags
Akhmedov's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Breese has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
AkhmedovBreese
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Akhmedov
Breese
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'3"
73"
Reach
73"
38
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Akhmedov
Breese
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.2
19.7
47.0
Performance Avg
56.8
36
Quality of Victory
53
100
Momentum Score
46
Akhmedov
Breese
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.5
/ 10
9.3
/ 10
4.3
Style: Pressure
7.5
6.6
Style: Volume
2.9
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
4 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Akhmedov
Breese
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.5
/ 10
0.5
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.3
1.1
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Akhmedov
Breese
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
64
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/27 fights
Chin rating based on
8/15 fights
Akhmedov
Breese
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
46
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Akhmedov
Breese
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
80%
2
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Akhmedov
Breese
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.3
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
6.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
AkhmedovBreese
Strike Zones
Akhmedov
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedBreese
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Akhmedov targets the head (100% of attacks) — Breese absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Akhmedov
RND
Breese
0/0R00/0
Akhmedov · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresDecision
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
W · Sub · R2
Tom BreeseSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · 2021-01
L · Dec · R3
Chris WeidmanDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · 2020-08
W · Dec · R3
Ian HeinischDecision
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · 2019-12
W · Dec · R3
Zak CummingsDecision
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · 2019-09
Breese · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Omari AkhmedovSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · 2021-01
W · KO · R1
KB BhullarKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · 2020-10
L · KO · R1
Brendan AllenKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo · 2020-02
W · KO · R1
Daniel KellyKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · 2018-05
L · Dec · R3
Sean StricklandDecision
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06