UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
20 Jan 2021
Middleweight
VS
61%
Akhmedov
39%
Breese
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:41
OA
Omari Akhmedov
"Wolverine"
21 – 6
6'0"73" reachOrthodox38 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 30
TB
Tom Breese
12 – 3
Knockout Artist34 yrsSouthpaw73" reach6'3"
CFR 20

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Akhmedov

Akhmedov holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Breese has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Breese has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.

Breese has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Akhmedov's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Breese has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Akhmedov
Breese
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'3"
73"
Reach
73"
38
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Akhmedov
Breese
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
30.2
19.7
47.0
Performance Avg
56.8
36
Quality of Victory
53
100
Momentum Score
46
Akhmedov
Breese
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
2.3
34%
Strike Accuracy
54%
3.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Akhmedov
Breese
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.5
/ 10
0.5
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.3
1.1
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Akhmedov
Breese
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
64
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/27 fights
Chin rating based on
8/15 fights
Akhmedov
Breese
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
46
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Akhmedov
Breese
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
80%
2
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Akhmedov
Breese
Striking3.5 / 9.3Volume6.6 / 2.9Grappling2.5 / 0.5Wrestling1.7 / 0.3Submission1.1 / 0.0Pressure4.3 / 7.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.3
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
6.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
Akhmedov
Strike Zones
Breese
Akhmedov
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Breese
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Akhmedov targets the head (100% of attacks) — Breese absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Akhmedov
RND
Breese
0/0R00/0

Akhmedov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.0W2.6L4.5W5.0W4.0L4.5L4.5W6.0W4.5W4.9W4.5W6.3L5.2W5.5L2013-112015-122019-032021-012021-07
WinLossTrend

Breese · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.0W5.0W4.5W6.6L5.0W2.8L5.0W2.8L2015-052016-022018-052020-102021-01
WinLossTrend

Akhmedov · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
W · Sub · R2
Tom BreeseRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · 2021-01
L · Dec · R3
Chris WeidmanRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · 2020-08
W · Dec · R3
Ian HeinischRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · 2019-12
W · Dec · R3
Zak CummingsRating 4.9
Decision
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · 2019-09

Breese · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Omari AkhmedovRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · 2021-01
W · KO · R1
KB BhullarRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · 2020-10
L · KO · R1
Brendan AllenRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo · 2020-02
W · KO · R1
Daniel KellyRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · 2018-05
L · Dec · R3
Sean StricklandRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06

News & Media

Omari Akhmedov · Tom Breese
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