METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira
Sao Paulo, Brazil
19 Nov 2016
Bantamweight
VS
69%
Almeida
31%
Morales
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:37
★ Official Result
Thomas AlmeidawinsKO/TKOR2 · 1:37
def. Albert Morales · UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Almeida
→
Actual result
Almeida wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Almeida holds a meaningful edge at 69% per the CFR ratings — but Morales has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Almeida has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 26 points.
Risk flags
Almeida's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Morales has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
AlmeidaMorales
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Almeida
Morales
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'9"
70"
Reach
+72"
35
Age
35
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Almeida
Morales
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.4
8.1
50.6
Performance Avg
23.0
51
Quality of Victory
25
59
Momentum Score
15
Almeida
Morales
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
9.0
/ 10
0.4
/ 10
7.1
Style: Pressure
0.6
2.6
Style: Volume
8.4
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
1
1
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
16Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Almeida
Morales
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.5
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
0.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Almeida
Morales
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
62
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/27 fights
Chin rating based on
6/11 fights
Almeida
Morales
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
15
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Almeida
Morales
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
0%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Almeida
Morales
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.4
0.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.6
2.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.4
AlmeidaMorales
Strike Zones
Almeida
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedMorales
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Almeida targets the head (88% of attacks) — Morales absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Morales targets the head (50% of attacks) — Almeida absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Almeida
RND
Morales
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Almeida · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Sean O'MalleyKO/TKO
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2021-03
L · Dec · R3
Jonathan MartinezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The Korean Zombie · 2020-10
L · KO · R2
Rob FontKO/TKO
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2018-01
L · Dec · R3
Jimmie RiveraDecision
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
W · KO · R2
Albert MoralesKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
Morales · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Manny BermudezSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens · 2018-02
L · Dec · R3
Benito LopezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · 2017-12
L · Dec · R3
Brett JohnsDecision
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio · 2017-07
W · Dec · R3
Andre SoukhamthathDecision
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03
L · KO · R2
Thomas AlmeidaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11