UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira
Sao Paulo, Brazil
19 Nov 2016
Bantamweight
VS
69%
Almeida
31%
Morales
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:37
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Almeida
Almeida holds a meaningful edge at 69% per the CFR ratings — but Morales has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Almeida has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 26 points.
Almeida has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Almeida's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Morales has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Almeida
Morales
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'9"
70"
Reach
+72"
34+
Age
35
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Almeida
Morales
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.4
8.1
50.6
Performance Avg
23.0
51
Quality of Victory
25
59
Momentum Score
15
Almeida
Morales
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
1.4
45%
Strike Accuracy
34%
9.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.4
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
1
1
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
16Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Almeida
Morales
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.5
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
0.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Almeida
Morales
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
62
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/27 fights
Chin rating based on
6/11 fights
Almeida
Morales
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
15
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Almeida
Morales
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
0%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Almeida
Morales
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.4
0.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.6
2.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.4
AlmeidaMorales
Strike Zones
Almeida
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedMorales
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Almeida targets the head (88% of attacks) — Morales absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Morales targets the head (50% of attacks) — Almeida absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Almeida
RND
Morales
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Almeida · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Morales · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Almeida · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Sean O'MalleyRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2021-03
L · Dec · R3
Jonathan MartinezRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The Korean Zombie · 2020-10
L · KO · R2
Rob FontRating 4KO/TKO
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2018-01
L · Dec · R3
Jimmie RiveraRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
W · KO · R2
Albert MoralesRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
Morales · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Manny BermudezRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens · 2018-02
L · Dec · R3
Benito LopezRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · 2017-12
L · Dec · R3
Brett JohnsRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio · 2017-07
W · Dec · R3
Andre SoukhamthathRating 4.5Decision
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03
L · KO · R2
Thomas AlmeidaRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11