METRICS GUIDE

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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
Las Vegas, USA
16 Dec 2023
Lightweight
VS
39%
Ferguson
61%
Pimblett
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Tony
Tony Ferguson
"El Cucuy"
26 – 11
5'11"76" reachOrthodox42 yrs8-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 45
Paddy
Paddy Pimblett
"The Baddy"
23 – 4
Pressure Fighter31 yrsOrthodox73" reach5'10"
CFR 70
★ Official Result
Paddy PimblettwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Tony Ferguson · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Pimblett
→
Actual result
Pimblett wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis

Pimblett holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Ferguson has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Ferguson's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
FergusonPimblett
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Ferguson
Pimblett
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
76"+
Reach
73"
42
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ferguson
Pimblett
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.2
70.2
54.2
Performance Avg
64.2
49
Quality of Victory
48
52
Momentum Score
85
Ferguson
Pimblett
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
4.3
/ 10
6.1
Style: Pressure
7.9
3.4
Style: Volume
3.8
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
14
11
Body
0
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
16Distance8
0Clinch0
6Ground9
Ferguson
Pimblett
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.8
/ 10
4.6
/ 10
2.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.2
4.0
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
6
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ferguson
Pimblett
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
98
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/37 fights
Chin rating based on
9/27 fights
Ferguson
Pimblett
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
85
8-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Ferguson
Pimblett
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
75%
3
KO / TKO Wins
2
6
Submission Wins
4
6
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ferguson
Pimblett
Striking3.3 / 4.3Volume3.4 / 3.8Grappling3.8 / 4.6Wrestling2.7 / 3.2Submission4.0 / 5.0Pressure6.1 / 7.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.6
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.2
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.9
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.8
Ferguson
Strike Zones
Pimblett
Ferguson
Attacking
11HEAD11BODY0LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD0BODY3LEGS17 absorbed
Pimblett
Attacking
14HEAD0BODY3LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD11BODY0LEGS22 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ferguson targets the head (50% of attacks) — Pimblett absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Pimblett targets the head (82% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 82% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ferguson
RND
Pimblett
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Ferguson · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Michael Chiesa
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Paddy Pimblett
Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
King Green
Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Sub · R4
Nate Diaz
Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
Michael Chandler
KO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05

Pimblett · Last 5

W · Sub · R1
Benoit Saint Denis
Submission
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Justin Gaethje
Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · KO · R3
Michael Chandler
KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
King Green
Submission
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R3
Tony Ferguson
Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12

News & Media

Tony Ferguson · Paddy Pimblett
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