UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
Las Vegas, USA
16 Dec 2023
Lightweight
VS
40%
Ferguson
60%
Pimblett
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Tony
Tony Ferguson
"El Cucuy"
26 – 11
5'11"76" reachOrthodox42 yrs8-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 45
Paddy
Paddy Pimblett
"The Baddy"
23 – 4
Pressure Fighter31 yrsOrthodox73" reach5'10"
CFR 69

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Pimblett

Pimblett holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Ferguson has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Ferguson throws more volume but Pimblett connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Ferguson's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Ferguson
Pimblett
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
76"+
Reach
73"
42
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ferguson
Pimblett
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.2
69.2
54.2
Performance Avg
63.1
49
Quality of Victory
47
52
Momentum Score
85
Ferguson
Pimblett
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.4
47%
Strike Accuracy
52%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.6
3 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
14
11
Body
0
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
16Distance8
0Clinch0
6Ground9
Ferguson
Pimblett
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.1
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ferguson
Pimblett
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
98
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/37 fights
Chin rating based on
9/27 fights
Ferguson
Pimblett
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
85
8-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Ferguson
Pimblett
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
71%
3
KO / TKO Wins
2
6
Submission Wins
3
6
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ferguson
Pimblett
Striking3.3 / 4.6Volume3.4 / 4.0Grappling3.8 / 4.1Wrestling2.7 / 2.9Submission4.0 / 4.3Pressure6.1 / 7.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.6
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.1
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.3
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.6
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
Ferguson
Strike Zones
Pimblett
Ferguson
Attacking
11HEAD11BODY0LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD0BODY3LEGS17 absorbed
Pimblett
Attacking
14HEAD0BODY3LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD11BODY0LEGS22 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ferguson targets the head (50% of attacks) — Pimblett absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Pimblett targets the head (82% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 82% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ferguson
RND
Pimblett
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Ferguson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.0W4.0W4.5W5.6L5.0W5.0W4.5W5.2W5.0W4.5W5.7W5.8W4.7W5.3W5.2W4.2W5.6L6.9L6.5L3.5L3.4L4.7L7.2L2.3L2011-062014-082016-112021-052024-08
WinLossTrend

Pimblett · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.0W5.0W6.7W4.9W5.0W5.7W6.0W7.1L2021-092022-072023-122025-042026-01
WinLossTrend

Ferguson · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaRating 2.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Paddy PimblettRating 7.2
Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
King GreenRating 4.7
Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Sub · R4
Nate DiazRating 3.4
Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
Michael ChandlerRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05

Pimblett · Last 5

Upcoming
Benoit Saint Denis
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Justin GaethjeRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · KO · R3
Michael ChandlerRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
King GreenRating 5.7
Submission
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R3
Tony FergusonRating 5
Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12

News & Media

Tony Ferguson · Paddy Pimblett
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