UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2
Newark, USA
7 Jun 2025
Heavyweight
VS
41%
Spivac
59%
Acosta
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Serghei
Serghei Spivac
"Polar Bear"
18 – 6
6'3"78" reachOrthodox31 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 45
Waldo
Waldo Cortes Acosta
"Salsa Boy"
17 – 3
Striker34 yrsOrthodox78" reach6'4"
CFR 66

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Acosta

This is a genuine toss-up — Spivac at 41% vs Acosta at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Acosta throws more volume but Spivac connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Spivac's chin rating of 8 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Spivac
Acosta
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'4"
78"
Reach
78"
31+
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Spivac
Acosta
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.1
65.8
52.0
Performance Avg
55.7
47
Quality of Victory
42
33
Momentum Score
100
Spivac
Acosta
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
2.4
50%
Strike Accuracy
50%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.5
3 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
43
0
Body
1
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
14Distance46
2Clinch1
0Ground0
Spivac
Acosta
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
2.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Spivac
Acosta
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
8
94
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
4
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/24 fights
Chin rating based on
13/20 fights
Spivac
Acosta
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
100
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Spivac
Acosta
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
50%
3
KO / TKO Wins
5
3
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Spivac
Acosta
Striking4.5 / 6.5Volume3.9 / 5.5Grappling3.5 / 1.2Wrestling2.4 / 0.8Submission3.3 / 0.0Pressure6.5 / 5.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.5
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
3.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.5
Spivac
Strike Zones
Acosta
Spivac
Attacking
16HEAD0BODY0LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
43HEAD1BODY3LEGS47 absorbed
Acosta
Attacking
43HEAD1BODY3LEGS47 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD0BODY0LEGS16 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Spivac targets the head (100% of attacks) — Acosta absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Acosta targets the head (91% of attacks) — Spivac absorbs 91% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Spivac
RND
Acosta
0/0R00/0

Spivac · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0101.5L5.7W5.9L4.5W5.2W4.5W3.9L5.0W5.4W6.2W3.9L5.4W3.3L7.0L5.5W2019-052021-022022-082025-012026-02
WinLossTrend

Acosta · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0104.5W4.5W6.1L5.0W5.2W5.3W5.7W5.0W6.7L6.0W5.7W6.5W6.8L2022-102024-012025-082026-05
WinLossTrend

Spivac · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Ante DelijaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 7
Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
L · KO · R1
Jailton AlmeidaRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R1
Marcin TyburaRating 5.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
L · KO · R2
Ciryl GaneRating 3.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · 2023-09

Acosta · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · KO · R2
Derrick LewisRating 6.5
KO/TKO
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · KO · R1
Shamil GazievRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · KO · R1
Ante DelijaRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
L · Dec · R3
Sergei PavlovichRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08

News & Media

Serghei Spivac · Waldo Cortes Acosta
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