UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
Anaheim, USA
29 Jul 2017
Catch Weight
VS
78%
Sterling
22%
Barao
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Sterling
Sterling is a strong favourite at 78% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 39 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Barao has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 26 points.
Striking split: Barao throws more volume but Sterling connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Sterling's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Barao has a chin rating of 24 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Sterling
Barao
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'6"
71"+
Reach
70"
36+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Sterling
Barao
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
54.2
15.7
54.2
Performance Avg
59.4
38
Quality of Victory
64
71
Momentum Score
0
Sterling
Barao
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.4
52%
Strike Accuracy
38%
2.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
4
7
Body
1
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
19Distance4
5Clinch1
0Ground0
Sterling
Barao
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.2
/ 10
3.7
/ 10
2.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.6
2.2
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
4
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Sterling
Barao
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
24
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.7 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
23/31 fights
Chin rating based on
17/43 fights
Sterling
Barao
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
71
0
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Sterling
Barao
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
56%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
4
Submission Wins
3
12
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Sterling
Barao
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
2.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
SterlingBarao
Strike Zones
Sterling
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedBarao
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Sterling targets the head (54% of attacks) — Barao absorbs 54% of strikes there
🎯Barao targets the head (80% of attacks) — Sterling absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Sterling
RND
Barao
0/0R00/0
Sterling · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Barao · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Sterling · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Youssef ZalalRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Dec · R5
Brian OrtegaRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Calvin KattarRating 5Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
L · KO · R2
Sean O'MalleyRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08
Barao · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Douglas Silva de AndradeRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11
L · KO · R2
Luke SandersRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
L · Dec · R3
Andre EwellRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · Dec · R3
Brian KelleherRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens · 2018-02
L · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5Decision
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · 2017-07