UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez
Las Vegas, USA
9 Dec 2023
Women's Strawweight
VS
11%
Santos
89%
Alencar
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Alencar
Alencar is a strong favourite at 89% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 51 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Alencar has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 30 points.
Striking split: Santos throws more volume but Alencar connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Santos
Alencar
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'2"+
Height
5'1"
62"+
Reach
58"
30+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Santos
Alencar
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
7.5
58.3
0.0
Performance Avg
50.0
0
Quality of Victory
30
0
Momentum Score
91
Santos
Alencar
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
1.4
37%
Strike Accuracy
39%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.6
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
8
3
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
11Distance8
2Clinch1
0Ground0
Santos
Alencar
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Santos
Alencar
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
98
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/23 fights
Chin rating based on
5/9 fights
Santos
Alencar
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
91
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Santos
Alencar
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
25%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Santos
Alencar
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.6
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.6
SantosAlencar
Strike Zones
Santos
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedAlencar
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Santos targets the head (69% of attacks) — Alencar absorbs 69% of strikes there
🎯Alencar targets the head (89% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 89% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Santos
RND
Alencar
0/0R00/0
Santos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.2WinLossTrend
Alencar · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Santos · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Alice ArdeleanRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Puja TomarRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
L · Dec · R3
Talita AlencarRating 6.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12
Alencar · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Julia PolastriRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Sub · R3
Ariane CarnelossiRating 6.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Vanessa DemopoulosRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
Stephanie LucianoRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Rayanne dos SantosRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12