Carlos Condit vs Jake Ellenberger — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs Guillard

Oklahoma City, USA

16 Sept 2009

Welterweight

47%

Condit

53%

Ellenberger

Win Probability

Decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Carlos Condit

"The Natural Born Killer"

32 – 14

6'2"75" reachOrthodox42 yrsWell-Rounded

CFR 14

Jake Ellenberger

"The Juggernaut"

31 – 15

Well-Rounded4-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'9"

CFR 16

★ Official Result

Carlos ConditwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00

def. Jake Ellenberger · UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs Guillard

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Ellenberger

→

Actual result

Condit wins

Decision · R3

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Condit at 47% vs Ellenberger at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Risk flags

Condit's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Ellenberger has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

ConditEllenberger

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Condit

Ellenberger

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

6'2"+

Height

5'9"

75"+

Reach

71"

Age

+41

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Condit

Ellenberger

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

14.2

15.7

47.8

Performance Avg

45.7

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Condit

Ellenberger

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

5.4

/ 10

6.0

/ 10

4.5

Style: Pressure

5.6

4.5

Style: Volume

3.4

4 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

5 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

1Distance2

0Clinch1

12Ground2

Condit

Ellenberger

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

1.1

/ 10

1.5

/ 10

0.8

Wrestling Style (/10)

1.1

0.0

Submission Style (/10)

1.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Condit

Ellenberger

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

KO risk

Verdict

4 consec. KOs

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R2.0 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R1.6 stoppage

9 fights ago

Last KO loss

Most recent fight

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

19/46 fights

Chin rating based on

21/46 fights

Condit

Ellenberger

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

Current form

4-fight 📉 slide

L · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R3

L · Sub · R2

Last 5

L · KO · R1

L · KO · R2

L · KO · R1

W · KO · R1

Condit

Ellenberger

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

44%

60%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Condit

Ellenberger

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

5.4

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

6.0

1.1

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

1.5

0.8

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

1.1

0.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

1.0

4.5

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

5.6

4.5

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

3.4

Condit

Strike Zones

Ellenberger

Condit

Attacking

13 landed

Absorbing

5 absorbed

Ellenberger

Attacking

5 landed

Absorbing

13 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Condit targets the head (85% of attacks) — Ellenberger absorbs 85% of strikes there

🎯Ellenberger targets the head (100% of attacks) — Condit absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Condit

RND

Ellenberger

0/0R00/0

0/0R20/0

Condit · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Max Griffin

Decision

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Decision

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Court McGee

Decision

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Michael Chiesa

Submission

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Alex Oliveira

Submission

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Ellenberger · Last 5

L · KO · R1

Bryan Barberena

KO/TKO

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Ben Saunders

KO/TKO

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Mike Perry

KO/TKO

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Jorge Masvidal

KO/TKO

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Matt Brown

KO/TKO

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News & Media

Carlos Condit · Jake Ellenberger

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