UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs Guillard
Oklahoma City, USA
16 Sept 2009
Welterweight
VS
59%
Condit
41%
Ellenberger
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
CC
Carlos Condit
"The Natural Born Killer"
32 – 14
6'2"75" reachOrthodox42 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 22
JE
Jake Ellenberger
"The Juggernaut"
31 – 15
Well-Rounded4-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'9"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Condit

This is a genuine toss-up — Condit at 59% vs Ellenberger at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Condit throws more volume but Ellenberger connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Condit's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Ellenberger has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Condit
Ellenberger
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
5'9"
75"+
Reach
71"
42
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Condit
Ellenberger
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.3
15.7
47.8
Performance Avg
45.7
48
Quality of Victory
45
20
Momentum Score
56
Condit
Ellenberger
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.2
40%
Strike Accuracy
42%
5.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
5
2
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance2
0Clinch1
12Ground2
Condit
Ellenberger
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Condit
Ellenberger
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
0
KO risk
Verdict
4 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
7
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.6 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/46 fights
Chin rating based on
21/46 fights
Condit
Ellenberger
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
56
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Condit
Ellenberger
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
60%
4
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Condit
Ellenberger
Striking5.4 / 6.0Volume4.5 / 3.4Grappling1.1 / 1.5Wrestling0.8 / 1.1Submission0.0 / 1.0Pressure4.5 / 5.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
1.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
Condit
Strike Zones
Ellenberger
Condit
Attacking
11HEAD2BODY0LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Ellenberger
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD2BODY0LEGS13 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Condit targets the head (85% of attacks) — Ellenberger absorbs 85% of strikes there
🎯Ellenberger targets the head (100% of attacks) — Condit absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Condit
RND
Ellenberger
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0

Condit · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.5L4.5W5.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W5.5L5.5L5.4W2.8L4.1W5.8L1.5L6.1L2.8L3.5L4.7W4.9W6.1L2009-042012-022015-052018-122021-07
WinLossTrend

Ellenberger · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0105.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W2.1L4.5W5.0W5.5L4.3L1.8L5.2W2.1L5.5L5.4W1.5L2.8L1.5L1.9L2009-092012-022014-112017-042018-08
WinLossTrend

Condit · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
W · Dec · R3
Matt BrownRating 4.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · 2021-01
W · Dec · R3
Court McGeeRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana · 2020-10
L · Sub · R2
Michael ChiesaRating 3.5
Submission
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
L · Sub · R2
Alex OliveiraRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04

Ellenberger · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Bryan BarberenaRating 1.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
L · KO · R1
Ben SaundersRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06
L · KO · R2
Mike PerryRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
L · KO · R1
Jorge MasvidalRating 1.5
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · 2016-12
W · KO · R1
Matt BrownRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07

News & Media

Carlos Condit · Jake Ellenberger
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