METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs Guillard
Oklahoma City, USA
16 Sept 2009
Welterweight
VS
59%
Condit
41%
Ellenberger
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Carlos ConditwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Jake Ellenberger · UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs Guillard
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Condit
→
Actual result
Condit wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Condit at 59% vs Ellenberger at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Striking split: Condit throws more volume but Ellenberger connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Condit's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Ellenberger has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ConditEllenberger
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Condit
Ellenberger
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
5'9"
75"+
Reach
71"
42
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Condit
Ellenberger
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.3
15.7
47.8
Performance Avg
45.7
48
Quality of Victory
45
20
Momentum Score
56
Condit
Ellenberger
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.5
1.2
40%
Strike Accuracy
42%
5.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
5
2
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance2
0Clinch1
12Ground2
Condit
Ellenberger
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Condit
Ellenberger
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
0
KO risk
Verdict
4 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
7
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.6 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/46 fights
Chin rating based on
21/46 fights
Condit
Ellenberger
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
56
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Condit
Ellenberger
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
60%
4
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Condit
Ellenberger
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
1.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
ConditEllenberger
Strike Zones
Condit
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedEllenberger
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Condit targets the head (85% of attacks) — Ellenberger absorbs 85% of strikes there
🎯Ellenberger targets the head (100% of attacks) — Condit absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Condit
RND
Ellenberger
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Condit · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Ellenberger · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Condit · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 6.1Decision
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
W · Dec · R3
Matt BrownRating 4.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · 2021-01
W · Dec · R3
Court McGeeRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana · 2020-10
L · Sub · R2
Michael ChiesaRating 3.5Submission
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
L · Sub · R2
Alex OliveiraRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04
Ellenberger · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Bryan BarberenaRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
L · KO · R1
Ben SaundersRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06
L · KO · R2
Mike PerryRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
L · KO · R1
Jorge MasvidalRating 1.5KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · 2016-12
W · KO · R1
Matt BrownRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07