UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori
Las Vegas, USA
23 Oct 2021
Flyweight
VS
98%
Molina
2%
Lacerda
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:46
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Molina
Molina is a strong favourite at 98% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 36 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Molina has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 35 points.
Molina has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Lacerda has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Molina
Lacerda
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
5'6"
69"
Reach
+70"
28+
Age
29
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Molina
Lacerda
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
37.1
0.7
61.0
Performance Avg
0.0
35
Quality of Victory
0
100
Momentum Score
0
Molina
Lacerda
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
4.6
1.6
54%
Strike Accuracy
40%
5.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
0
3
Body
0
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
6Distance2
0Clinch0
11Ground0
Molina
Lacerda
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.6
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Molina
Lacerda
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
10
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/13 fights
Chin rating based on
6/17 fights
Molina
Lacerda
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
Molina
Lacerda
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Molina
Lacerda
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
MolinaLacerda
Strike Zones
Molina
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedLacerda
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Molina targets the head (76% of attacks) — Lacerda absorbs 76% of strikes there
🎯Lacerda targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Molina absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Molina
RND
Lacerda
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Molina · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Lacerda · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.3WinLossTrend
Molina · Last 3
W · Dec · R3
Zhalgas ZhumagulovRating 4.5Decision
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