UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer
Las Vegas, USA
10 Feb 2024
Light Heavyweight
VS
23%
Pauga
77%
Guskov
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:38
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Guskov
Guskov is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 53 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Guskov has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 31 points.
Striking split: Guskov throws more volume but Pauga connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Pauga's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pauga
Guskov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'3"
76"
Reach
76"
38
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pauga
Guskov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.5
75.8
25.0
Performance Avg
65.7
25
Quality of Victory
56
22
Momentum Score
100
Pauga
Guskov
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
3.5
61%
Strike Accuracy
56%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.1
0 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
10
2
Body
0
8
Leg
0
RangeRange
14Distance10
3Clinch0
0Ground0
Pauga
Guskov
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
2.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Pauga
Guskov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
88
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/10 fights
Chin rating based on
6/21 fights
Pauga
Guskov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
22
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Pauga
Guskov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pauga
Guskov
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.1
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
9.4
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.6
PaugaGuskov
Strike Zones
Pauga
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedGuskov
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pauga targets the legs (47% of attacks) — Guskov absorbs 47% of strikes there
🎯Guskov targets the head (100% of attacks) — Pauga absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pauga
RND
Guskov
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Pauga · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Guskov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Pauga · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Bogdan GuskovRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · Dec · R3
Modestas BukauskasRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06
W · Dec · R3
Jordan WrightRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · 2023-02
L · KO · R2
Mohammed UsmanRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · 2022-08
Guskov · Last 5
Upcoming
Jan BlachowiczDecision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · KO · R1
Nikita KrylovRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
W · Sub · R2
Billy ElekanaRating 6.8Submission
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · KO · R2
Ryan SpannRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
W · KO · R1
Zac PaugaRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02