UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
Las Vegas, USA
1 Oct 2022
Catch Weight
VS
48%
Stoliarenko
52%
Chandler
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:15
Julija
Julija Stoliarenko
11 – 10
5'7"66" reachOrthodox33 yrs2-fight slideSubmission Hunter
CFR 42
Chelsea
Chelsea Chandler
6 – 4
Well-Rounded2-fight slide35 yrsSouthpaw68" reach5'8"
CFR 45

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Chandler

This is a genuine toss-up — Stoliarenko at 48% vs Chandler at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Stoliarenko has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Chandler has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Stoliarenko's chin rating of 36 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Stoliarenko
Chandler
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
66"
Reach
+68"
33+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Stoliarenko
Chandler
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
41.9
45.0
41.3
Performance Avg
41.5
54
Quality of Victory
43
20
Momentum Score
43
Stoliarenko
Chandler
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.6
39%
Strike Accuracy
47%
0.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
34
3
Body
4
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
12Distance17
0Clinch0
0Ground21
Stoliarenko
Chandler
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
8.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
5.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Stoliarenko
Chandler
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
36
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/21 fights
Chin rating based on
6/10 fights
Stoliarenko
Chandler
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
43
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Stoliarenko
Chandler
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Stoliarenko
Chandler
Striking0.4 / 5.8Volume0.4 / 4.8Grappling8.0 / 1.2Wrestling5.6 / 0.8Submission10.0 / 0.0Pressure7.7 / 4.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
0.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
Stoliarenko
Strike Zones
Chandler
Stoliarenko
Attacking
5HEAD3BODY4LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
34HEAD4BODY0LEGS38 absorbed
Chandler
Attacking
34HEAD4BODY0LEGS38 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD3BODY4LEGS12 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Stoliarenko targets the head (42% of attacks) — Chandler absorbs 42% of strikes there
🎯Chandler targets the head (89% of attacks) — Stoliarenko absorbs 89% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Stoliarenko
RND
Chandler
0/0R00/0

Stoliarenko · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.5L5.6L4.8L5.5L5.0W2.0L5.7W4.6L5.9L2018-112022-022023-072025-08
WinLossTrend

Chandler · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.3W6.0L5.3W5.6L2.9L2022-102023-072024-032024-082025-04
WinLossTrend

Stoliarenko · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Gabriella FernandesRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · KO · R3
Luana CarolinaRating 4.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · 2024-02
W · Sub · R1
Molly McCannRating 5.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
L · KO · R1
Chelsea ChandlerRating 2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · 2022-10
W · Sub · R1
Jessica-Rose ClarkRating 5
Submission
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07

Chandler · Last 5

Upcoming
Priscila Cachoeira
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
L · KO · R1
Joselyne EdwardsRating 2.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
Yana SantosRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Josiane NunesRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Norma DumontRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · 2023-07

News & Media

Julija Stoliarenko · Chelsea Chandler
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