UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
Las Vegas, USA
14 Dec 2019
Welterweight
VS
77%
Neal
23%
Perry
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:30
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Neal
Neal is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 39 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Neal has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Neal's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Perry has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Neal
Perry
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
75"+
Reach
71"
35
Age
+34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Neal
Perry
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.8
16.4
51.7
Performance Avg
44.4
48
Quality of Victory
43
72
Momentum Score
50
Neal
Perry
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
1.7
55%
Strike Accuracy
51%
7.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.7
5 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
1
1
Body
2
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
12Distance5
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Neal
Perry
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.6
/ 10
1.0
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.7
1.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Neal
Perry
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
54
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/24 fights
Chin rating based on
15/22 fights
Neal
Perry
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
50
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Neal
Perry
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
57%
5
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Neal
Perry
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.7
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.4
3.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.4
NealPerry
Strike Zones
Neal
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedPerry
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Neal targets the head (80% of attacks) — Perry absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Perry targets the body (40% of attacks) — Neal absorbs 40% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Neal
RND
Perry
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Neal · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Perry · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Neal · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Uros MedicRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · KO · R1
Carlos PratesRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · KO · R1
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Ian Machado GarryRating 7Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · Sub · R3
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 6.1Submission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
Perry · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · 2021-04
L · Dec · R3
Tim MeansRating 5.6Decision
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · 2020-11
W · Dec · R3
Mickey GallRating 5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker · 2020-06
L · KO · R1
Geoff NealRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · 2019-12
L · Dec · R3
Vicente LuqueRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 · 2019-08