UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber
Las Vegas, USA
31 May 2025
Middleweight
VS
56%
Reese
44%
Todorovic
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Reese
This is a genuine toss-up — Reese at 56% vs Todorovic at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Todorovic has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Todorovic has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Reese's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Todorovic has a chin rating of 8 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Reese
Todorovic
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'1"
77"+
Reach
74"
32
Age
32
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Reese
Todorovic
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.0
43.1
46.8
Performance Avg
49.6
40
Quality of Victory
56
88
Momentum Score
13
Reese
Todorovic
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
3.4
50%
Strike Accuracy
55%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
12
10
Body
3
6
Leg
2
RangeRange
26Distance16
1Clinch1
0Ground0
Reese
Todorovic
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.2
/ 10
2.0
/ 10
2.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.4
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
1
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Reese
Todorovic
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
8
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/13 fights
Chin rating based on
10/19 fights
Reese
Todorovic
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
88
13
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
Reese
Todorovic
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Reese
Todorovic
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.3
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.2
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.8
ReeseTodorovic
Strike Zones
Reese
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTodorovic
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Reese targets the head (41% of attacks) — Todorovic absorbs 41% of strikes there
🎯Todorovic targets the head (71% of attacks) — Reese absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Reese
RND
Todorovic
0/0R00/0
Reese · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Todorovic · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Reese · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Michel PereiraRating 6.1Decision
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W · Sub · R1
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