UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
Auckland, New Zealand
10 Jun 2017
Middleweight
VS
72%
Brunson
28%
Kelly
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:16
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Brunson
Brunson is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Brunson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Striking split: Kelly throws more volume but Brunson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Brunson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Kelly has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Brunson
Kelly
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
6'0"
77"+
Reach
70"
42+
Age
48
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Brunson
Kelly
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.2
16.0
54.7
Performance Avg
44.4
47
Quality of Victory
34
72
Momentum Score
65
Brunson
Kelly
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.8
44%
Strike Accuracy
41%
6.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.9
7 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
0
0
Body
0
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance1
0Clinch0
4Ground0
Brunson
Kelly
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.0
/ 10
2.9
/ 10
1.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.0
1.4
Submission Style (/10)
1.7
2
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Brunson
Kelly
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
32
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
6
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/32 fights
Chin rating based on
10/17 fights
Brunson
Kelly
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
65
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Brunson
Kelly
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
33%
7
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Brunson
Kelly
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.9
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.1
4.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.5
BrunsonKelly
Strike Zones
Brunson
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedKelly
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Brunson targets the head (75% of attacks) — Kelly absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Kelly targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Brunson absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Brunson
RND
Kelly
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Brunson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Kelly · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Brunson · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Dricus Du PlessisRating 4.7KO/TKO
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
L · KO · R2
Jared CannonierRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · 2022-02
W · Sub · R3
Darren TillRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till · 2021-09
W · Dec · R5
Kevin HollandRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland · 2021-03
W · KO · R3
Edmen ShahbazyanRating 6.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan · 2020-08
Kelly · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Tom BreeseRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · 2018-05
L · Dec · R3
Elias TheodorouRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · 2017-11
L · KO · R1
Derek BrunsonRating 1.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt · 2017-06
W · Dec · R3
Rashad EvansRating 4.5Decision
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03
W · Dec · R3
Chris CamozziRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · 2016-11