UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens
Mexico City, Mexico
21 Sept 2019
Featherweight
VS
31%
Reyes
69%
Nelson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:36
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Nelson
Nelson holds a meaningful edge at 69% per the CFR ratings — but Reyes has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Reyes throws more volume but Nelson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Reyes's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nelson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Reyes
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
71"
Reach
71"
41
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Reyes
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.8
36.8
49.2
Performance Avg
41.6
49
Quality of Victory
39
50
Momentum Score
36
Reyes
Nelson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.0
35%
Strike Accuracy
47%
8.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.9
3 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
8
5
Body
4
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance2
3Clinch10
0Ground0
Reyes
Nelson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.6
/ 10
1.4
/ 10
0.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Reyes
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
0
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/15 fights
Chin rating based on
12/24 fights
Reyes
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
36
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Reyes
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
40%
3
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Reyes
Nelson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
0.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
0.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
3.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
ReyesNelson
Strike Zones
Reyes
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedNelson
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Reyes targets the body (83% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Nelson targets the head (67% of attacks) — Reyes absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Reyes
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0
Reyes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.6WinLossTrend
Nelson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Reyes · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Kyle NelsonRating 1.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · 2019-09
L · KO · R1
Drew DoberRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · 2019-06
L · KO · R2
Damir HadzovicRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos · 2019-02
W · KO · R1
Matt FrevolaRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi · 2018-01
L · KO · R1
James VickRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos · 2017-05
Nelson · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Terrance McKinneyRating 3KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Matt FrevolaRating 4.7Decision
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L · KO · R1
Steve GarciaRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
W · KO · R1
Bill AlgeoRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Fernando PadillaRating 5.8Decision
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