UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris
Jacksonville, USA
16 May 2020
Welterweight
VS
48%
Brown
52%
Baeza
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:18
MB
Matt Brown
"The Immortal"
26 – 19
6'0"75" reachOrthodox45 yrsKnockout Artist
CFR 43
Miguel
Miguel Baeza
"Caramel Thunder"
10 – 4
Knockout Artist4-fight slide33 yrsOrthodox74" reach6'2"
CFR 46

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Baeza

This is a genuine toss-up — Brown at 48% vs Baeza at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Baeza throws more volume but Brown connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Brown's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Baeza has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Brown
Baeza
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'2"
75"+
Reach
74"
45
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Brown
Baeza
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
42.5
46.1
54.0
Performance Avg
49.0
52
Quality of Victory
53
78
Momentum Score
39
Brown
Baeza
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.7
60%
Strike Accuracy
45%
8.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.5
13 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
4
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
0Distance4
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Brown
Baeza
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
2.7
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.9
1.2
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
2
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Brown
Baeza
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
52
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/45 fights
Chin rating based on
7/14 fights
Brown
Baeza
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
39
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Brown
Baeza
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
100%
13
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Brown
Baeza
Striking8.8 / 7.5Volume2.1 / 0.9Grappling1.2 / 2.7Wrestling0.8 / 1.9Submission1.2 / 3.3Pressure7.9 / 8.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.5
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
1.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
7.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.3
2.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
Brown
Strike Zones
Baeza
Brown
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY1LEGS5 absorbed
Baeza
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY1LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Baeza targets the head (80% of attacks) — Brown absorbs 80% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Brown
RND
Baeza
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Brown · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.2W5.5L5.2W5.0W5.5W2.8L2.8L2.8L4.5W2.8L5.2W5.1W5.2W5.2W5.2W5.0W5.2W5.8L5.5L5.1W4.0L1.5L4.0L5.0W5.2W3.3L5.5L5.2W5.9L5.2W2008-062011-062014-052019-122023-05
WinLossTrend

Baeza · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.2W5.6W5.4W6.0L5.4L1.5L6.5L2019-102020-112021-112024-06
WinLossTrend

Brown · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Court McGeeRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
L · Dec · R3
Bryan BarberenaRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03
W · KO · R2
Dhiego LimaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige · 2021-06
L · Dec · R3
Carlos ConditRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · 2021-01
L · KO · R2
Miguel BaezaRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · 2020-05

Baeza · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Punahele SorianoRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
L · KO · R1
Andre FialhoRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad · 2022-04
L · KO · R3
Khaos WilliamsRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · 2021-11
L · Dec · R3
Santiago PonzinibbioRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · 2021-06
W · Sub · R2
Takashi SatoRating 5.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark · 2020-11

News & Media

Matt Brown · Miguel Baeza
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