UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
Las Vegas, USA
6 Oct 2018
Women's Strawweight
VS
50%
Waterson-Gomez
50%
Herrig
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Michelle
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
"The Karate Hottie"
18 – 13
5'3"62" reachOrthodox40 yrs5-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 27
FH
Felice Herrig
"Lil Bulldog"
14 – 10
Well-Rounded4-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox65" reach5'4"
CFR 26

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Waterson-Gomez

This is a genuine toss-up — Waterson-Gomez at 50% vs Herrig at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Herrig throws more volume but Waterson-Gomez connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Waterson-Gomez's chin rating of 42 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Waterson-Gomez
Herrig
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"
Height
+5'4"
62"
Reach
+65"
40+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Waterson-Gomez
Herrig
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.5
26.3
36.8
Performance Avg
41.4
35
Quality of Victory
36
0
Momentum Score
66
Waterson-Gomez
Herrig
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.5
50%
Strike Accuracy
41%
0.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
7
10
Body
8
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
7Distance5
13Clinch11
13Ground1
Waterson-Gomez
Herrig
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.6
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Waterson-Gomez
Herrig
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
42
70
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/31 fights
Chin rating based on
10/24 fights
Waterson-Gomez
Herrig
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
66
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Waterson-Gomez
Herrig
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
40%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Waterson-Gomez
Herrig
Striking0.8 / 1.0Volume6.1 / 5.8Grappling4.3 / 4.6Wrestling3.0 / 3.3Submission3.3 / 4.0Pressure3.5 / 4.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.6
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.3
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.3
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.8
Waterson-Gomez
Strike Zones
Herrig
Waterson-Gomez
Attacking
22HEAD10BODY1LEGS33 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD8BODY2LEGS17 absorbed
Herrig
Attacking
7HEAD8BODY2LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
22HEAD10BODY1LEGS33 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Waterson-Gomez targets the head (67% of attacks) — Herrig absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Herrig targets the body (47% of attacks) — Waterson-Gomez absorbs 47% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Waterson-Gomez
RND
Herrig
0/0R00/0

Waterson-Gomez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.5W5.0W4.2L6.2L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5L5.8L4.6W6.2L3.8L5.5L3.4L6.7L2015-072018-042020-052023-042024-06
WinLossTrend

Herrig · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.2W5.5L5.0W5.7W4.5W4.5W5.5L5.5L2.2L2.8L2014-122017-022018-042022-06
WinLossTrend

Waterson-Gomez · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Gillian RobertsonRating 6.7
Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
L · KO · R2
Marina RodriguezRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09
L · Dec · R3
Luana PinheiroRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04
L · Sub · R2
Amanda LemosRating 3.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
L · Dec · R5
Marina RodriguezRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05

Herrig · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Karolina KowalkiewiczRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · 2022-06
L · Sub · R1
Virna JandirobaRating 2.2
Submission
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · 2020-08
L · Dec · R3
Michelle Waterson-GomezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
L · Dec · R3
Karolina KowalkiewiczRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Cortney CaseyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12

News & Media

Michelle Waterson-Gomez · Felice Herrig
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