METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
Sacramento, USA
30 Aug 2014
Lightweight
VS
72%
Ferguson
28%
Castillo
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Tony FergusonwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Danny Castillo · UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Ferguson
→
Actual result
Ferguson wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Ferguson is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 28 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Ferguson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Risk flags
Ferguson's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Castillo has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
FergusonCastillo
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Ferguson
Castillo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
76"+
Reach
71"
42+
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ferguson
Castillo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.2
17.2
54.2
Performance Avg
40.6
49
Quality of Victory
34
52
Momentum Score
89
Ferguson
Castillo
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
3.9
/ 10
6.1
Style: Pressure
3.5
3.4
Style: Volume
6.7
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
0
0
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Ferguson
Castillo
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.8
/ 10
1.7
/ 10
2.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.2
4.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
6
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ferguson
Castillo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
46
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/37 fights
Chin rating based on
14/27 fights
Ferguson
Castillo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
89
8-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Ferguson
Castillo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
29%
3
KO / TKO Wins
2
6
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ferguson
Castillo
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
FergusonCastillo
Strike Zones
Ferguson
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedCastillo
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ferguson targets the head (50% of attacks) — Castillo absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ferguson
RND
Castillo
0/0R00/0
Ferguson · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Paddy PimblettDecision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
King GreenSubmission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Sub · R4
Nate DiazSubmission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
Michael ChandlerKO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
Castillo · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Nik LentzDecision
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2 · 2015-12
L · Dec · R3
Jim MillerDecision
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07
L · KO · R2
Paul FelderKO/TKO
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier · 2015-01
L · Dec · R3
Tony FergusonDecision
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto · 2014-08
W · KO · R2
Charlie BrennemanKO/TKO
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira · 2014-04