UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
Sacramento, USA
30 Aug 2014
Lightweight
VS
72%
Ferguson
28%
Castillo
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Ferguson
Ferguson is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 28 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Ferguson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Ferguson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Ferguson's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Castillo has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Ferguson
Castillo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
76"+
Reach
71"
42+
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ferguson
Castillo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.2
17.2
54.2
Performance Avg
40.6
49
Quality of Victory
34
52
Momentum Score
89
Ferguson
Castillo
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
0.9
47%
Strike Accuracy
44%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.9
3 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
0
0
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Ferguson
Castillo
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.7
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ferguson
Castillo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
46
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/37 fights
Chin rating based on
14/27 fights
Ferguson
Castillo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
89
8-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Ferguson
Castillo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
29%
3
KO / TKO Wins
2
6
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ferguson
Castillo
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
FergusonCastillo
Strike Zones
Ferguson
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedCastillo
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ferguson targets the head (50% of attacks) — Castillo absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ferguson
RND
Castillo
0/0R00/0
Ferguson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Castillo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Ferguson · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaRating 2.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Paddy PimblettRating 7.2Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
King GreenRating 4.7Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Sub · R4
Nate DiazRating 3.4Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
Michael ChandlerRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
Castillo · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Nik LentzRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2 · 2015-12
L · Dec · R3
Jim MillerRating 5.9Decision
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07
L · KO · R2
Paul FelderRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier · 2015-01
L · Dec · R3
Tony FergusonRating 6Decision
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto · 2014-08
W · KO · R2
Charlie BrennemanRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira · 2014-04