The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen Finale
Las Vegas, USA
13 Apr 2013
Featherweight
VS
25%
Lawrence
75%
Pineda
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:35
JL
Justin Lawrence
"The American Kidd"
10 – 4
5'8"67" reachOrthodox36 yrs2-fight slideKnockout Artist
CFR 17
Daniel
Daniel Pineda
"The Pit"
28 – 17
Submission Hunter3-fight slide40 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'7"
CFR 53

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Pineda

Pineda is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 36 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Pineda has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Lawrence's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Pineda has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Lawrence
Pineda
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'7"
67"
Reach
+69"
36+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lawrence
Pineda
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.4
52.9
43.3
Performance Avg
47.4
50
Quality of Victory
53
43
Momentum Score
85
Lawrence
Pineda
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.1
37%
Strike Accuracy
55%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
0
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Lawrence
Pineda
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
6.4
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lawrence
Pineda
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
44
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/14 fights
Chin rating based on
14/45 fights
Lawrence
Pineda
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
85
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Upcoming
Lawrence
Pineda
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
4
0
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Lawrence
Pineda
Striking10.0 / 2.8Volume0.7 / 0.8Grappling0.0 / 6.4Wrestling0.0 / 4.5Submission0.0 / 8.0Pressure8.0 / 8.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.8
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.4
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
8.0
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.2
0.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.8
Lawrence
Strike Zones
Pineda
Lawrence
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Pineda
Attacking
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Pineda targets the body (100% of attacks) — Lawrence absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Lawrence
RND
Pineda
0/0R00/0

Lawrence · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.9
0105.5W3.8L2.4L2012-062012-082013-04
WinLossTrend

Pineda · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.0W5.0W5.5L1.5L5.0W5.5L5.5L5.6W3.3L5.2W5.7L6.3L6.0L2012-012013-042020-122024-10
WinLossTrend

Lawrence · Last 3

L · Sub · R1
Daniel PinedaRating 2.4
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen Finale · 2013-04
L · KO · R2
Max HollowayRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II · 2012-08
W · KO · R3
John CoferRating 5.5
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Finale · 2012-06

Pineda · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Darren ElkinsRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Nathaniel WoodRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
Alex CaceresRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
W · Sub · R2
Tucker LutzRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03
Upcoming
Andre Fili
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · 2021-06

News & Media

Justin Lawrence · Daniel Pineda
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