UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros
Austin, USA
18 Feb 2018
Lightweight
VS
56%
Northcutt
44%
Gouti
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
SN
Sage Northcutt
"Super"
11 – 2
6'0"71" reachOrthodox30 yrs3-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 21
TG
Thibault Gouti
"GT"
12 – 5
Knockout Artist2-fight slide39 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'10"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Northcutt

This is a genuine toss-up — Northcutt at 56% vs Gouti at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Gouti has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.

Northcutt has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Gouti has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Northcutt
Gouti
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'10"
71"
Reach
+72"
30+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Northcutt
Gouti
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.3
16.4
54.0
Performance Avg
42.7
40
Quality of Victory
60
89
Momentum Score
33
Northcutt
Gouti
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.3
59%
Strike Accuracy
35%
4.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
5
5
Body
0
12
Leg
0
RangeRange
19Distance5
4Clinch0
6Ground0
Northcutt
Gouti
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.5
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
1.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Northcutt
Gouti
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
50
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/13 fights
Chin rating based on
6/17 fights
Northcutt
Gouti
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
89
33
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
Northcutt
Gouti
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Northcutt
Gouti
Striking4.8 / 10.0Volume5.5 / 0.3Grappling2.5 / 0.0Wrestling1.8 / 0.0Submission1.7 / 0.0Pressure5.8 / 7.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.3
Northcutt
Strike Zones
Gouti
Northcutt
Attacking
12HEAD5BODY12LEGS29 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Gouti
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD5BODY12LEGS29 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Northcutt targets the head (41% of attacks) — Gouti absorbs 41% of strikes there
🎯Gouti targets the head (100% of attacks) — Northcutt absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Northcutt
RND
Gouti
0/0R00/0

Northcutt · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.0W5.2W3.2L4.5W3.3L4.5W4.5W5.2W2015-102016-012016-122018-022018-07
WinLossTrend

Gouti · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.9
0101.5L4.0L1.5L5.0W5.5L6.2L2016-022016-062016-082017-092018-022018-10
WinLossTrend

Northcutt · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Zak OttowRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07
W · Dec · R3
Thibault GoutiRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02
W · Dec · R3
Michel QuinonesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · 2017-11
L · Sub · R2
Mickey GallRating 3.3
Submission
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
W · Dec · R3
Enrique MarinRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes · 2016-07

Gouti · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Nasrat HaqparastRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith · 2018-10
L · Dec · R3
Sage NorthcuttRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02
W · KO · R1
Andrew HolbrookRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve · 2017-09
L · KO · R1
Chad LapriseRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit · 2016-08
L · Sub · R3
Olivier Aubin-MercierRating 4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · 2016-06

News & Media

Sage Northcutt · Thibault Gouti
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