UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
Sydney, Australia
20 Feb 2010
Light Heavyweight
VS
60%
Bader
40%
Jardine
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 2:10
RB
Ryan Bader
"Darth"
23 – 5
6'2"74" reachOrthodox42 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 20
KJ
Keith Jardine
"The Dean of Mean"
17 – 11
Well-Rounded4-fight slide50 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'2"
CFR 13

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Bader

Bader holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Jardine has real paths to victory.

Key angles

Striking split: Jardine throws more volume but Bader connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Bader's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Jardine has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Bader
Jardine
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
6'2"
74"
Reach
+76"
42+
Age
50
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Bader
Jardine
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.1
13.3
54.2
Performance Avg
40.0
40
Quality of Victory
36
100
Momentum Score
48
Bader
Jardine
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.8
45%
Strike Accuracy
41%
4.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
5 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
1
2
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance1
2Clinch0
0Ground0
Bader
Jardine
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.0
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
1.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
0.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Bader
Jardine
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
6
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
4
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/28 fights
Chin rating based on
13/28 fights
Bader
Jardine
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
48
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Bader
Jardine
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
33%
5
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
0
9
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Bader
Jardine
Striking4.8 / 4.3Volume6.3 / 6.3Grappling2.0 / 1.6Wrestling1.4 / 1.1Submission0.7 / 0.0Pressure5.0 / 3.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.7
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
Bader
Strike Zones
Jardine
Bader
Attacking
3HEAD2BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Jardine
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD2BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Bader targets the head (60% of attacks) — Jardine absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Jardine targets the head (100% of attacks) — Bader absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Bader
RND
Jardine
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Bader · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0105.0W4.5W4.5W5.5W4.5W4.5L1.5L5.0W4.5W2.8L5.0W1.9L4.5W4.5W5.1W4.5W4.5W1.5L5.2W5.2W2008-122011-022013-012015-012016-11
WinLossTrend

Jardine · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.1
0105.2W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.0W1.5L4.5W1.5L4.5W5.5L1.5L4.0L5.5L2005-112006-122008-102010-06
WinLossTrend

Bader · Last 5

W · KO · R3
Rogerio NogueiraRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
W · KO · R2
Ilir LatifiRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · 2016-09
L · KO · R1
Anthony JohnsonRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Rashad EvansRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
W · Dec · R3
Phil DavisRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01

Jardine · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Matt HamillRating 5.5
Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Liddell vs Team Ortiz Finale · 2010-06
L · KO · R3
Ryan BaderRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez · 2010-02
L · KO · R1
Thiago SilvaRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira · 2009-08
L · Dec · R3
Quinton JacksonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 96: Jackson vs Jardine · 2009-03
W · Dec · R3
Brandon VeraRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 89: Bisping vs Leben · 2008-10

News & Media

Ryan Bader · Keith Jardine
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