UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
3 Aug 2013
Middleweight
VS
56%
Leites
44%
Watson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
TL
Thales Leites
28 – 9
6'1"78" reachOrthodox44 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 16
TW
Tom Watson
"Kong"
17 – 9
Well-Rounded2-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox73" reach6'1"
CFR 13

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Leites

This is a genuine toss-up — Leites at 56% vs Watson at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Watson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Leites's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Leites
Watson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
78"+
Reach
73"
44
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Leites
Watson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.4
12.7
48.8
Performance Avg
35.4
40
Quality of Victory
40
35
Momentum Score
10
Leites
Watson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.4
39%
Strike Accuracy
45%
2.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.6
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
3
1
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance2
3Clinch2
1Ground0
Leites
Watson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.2
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
2.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
3.9
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
5
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Leites
Watson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
90
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/37 fights
Chin rating based on
7/26 fights
Leites
Watson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
35
10
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Leites
Watson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
54%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
5
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Leites
Watson
Striking2.8 / 5.6Volume4.9 / 4.6Grappling4.2 / 1.2Wrestling2.9 / 0.8Submission3.9 / 0.0Pressure5.6 / 4.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.6
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
3.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.4
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
Leites
Strike Zones
Watson
Leites
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY1LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY1LEGS4 absorbed
Watson
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY1LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY1LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Leites targets the head (71% of attacks) — Watson absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Watson targets the head (75% of attacks) — Leites absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Leites
RND
Watson
0/0R00/0

Leites · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.5L4.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W5.0W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.7W5.0W5.2W5.2W5.5L5.5L5.5W5.5L4.5W5.5L4.9L4.5W2006-112009-042015-012017-102018-09
WinLossTrend

Watson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.5L5.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W5.5L5.5L2012-092013-082014-082015-08
WinLossTrend

Leites · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Hector LombardRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · KO · R3
Jack HermanssonRating 4.9
KO/TKO
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · 2018-05
L · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · 2017-10
W · Dec · R3
Sam AlveyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
L · Dec · R3
Krzysztof JotkoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11

Watson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Chris CamozziRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Saint Preux · 2015-08
L · Dec · R3
Rafael NatalRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz · 2015-01
W · Dec · R3
Sam AlveyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux · 2014-08
L · Dec · R3
Nick CatoneRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02
L · Dec · R3
Thales LeitesRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung · 2013-08

News & Media

Thales Leites · Tom Watson
← Back to fights