UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan
Las Vegas, USA
4 Apr 2026
Flyweight
VS
93%
Costa
7%
Nicoll
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:56
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Costa
Costa is a strong favourite at 93% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 58 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Costa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 55 points.
Striking split: Nicoll throws more volume but Costa connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Costa's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nicoll has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Costa
Nicoll
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'5"
67"+
Reach
65"
30
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Costa
Nicoll
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
62.9
5.1
53.0
Performance Avg
0.0
55
Quality of Victory
0
85
Momentum Score
0
Costa
Nicoll
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.5
59%
Strike Accuracy
37%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
13
7
Body
7
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
21Distance20
1Clinch0
1Ground0
Costa
Nicoll
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
🥊
Pure striking matchup
Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history
0
Submission wins
0
Costa
Nicoll
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
64
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/20 fights
Chin rating based on
3/11 fights
Costa
Nicoll
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
85
0
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Costa
Nicoll
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Costa
Nicoll
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
1.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
CostaNicoll
Strike Zones
Costa
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedNicoll
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Costa targets the head (65% of attacks) — Nicoll absorbs 65% of strikes there
🎯Nicoll targets the head (65% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 65% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Costa
RND
Nicoll
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Costa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Nicoll · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Costa · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Stewart NicollRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
L · KO · R3
Alden CoriaRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
W · KO · R2
Kevin BorjasRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Steve ErcegRating 6.1Decision
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
W · KO · R2
Jimmy FlickRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06
Nicoll · Last 3
L · KO · R2
Alessandro CostaRating 4.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Lucas RochaRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Sub · R1
Jesus AguilarRating 2.4Submission
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08