METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan
Las Vegas, USA
4 Apr 2026
Flyweight
VS
93%
Costa
7%
Nicoll
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:56
★ Official Result
Alessandro CostawinsKO/TKOR2 · 4:56
def. Stewart Nicoll · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Costa
→
Actual result
Costa wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Costa is a strong favourite at 93% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 61 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Costa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 55 points.
Risk flags
Costa's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nicoll has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CostaNicoll
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Costa
Nicoll
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'5"
67"+
Reach
65"
30
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Costa
Nicoll
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.6
5.0
57.9
Performance Avg
0.0
55
Quality of Victory
0
85
Momentum Score
0
Costa
Nicoll
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
9.3
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
8.9
Style: Pressure
0.0
1.3
Style: Volume
0.0
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
13
7
Body
7
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
21Distance20
1Clinch0
1Ground0
Costa
Nicoll
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.6
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
2.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Costa
Nicoll
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
62
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/20 fights
Chin rating based on
4/11 fights
Costa
Nicoll
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
85
0
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Costa
Nicoll
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Costa
Nicoll
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
1.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
CostaNicoll
Strike Zones
Costa
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedNicoll
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Costa targets the head (65% of attacks) — Nicoll absorbs 65% of strikes there
🎯Nicoll targets the head (65% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 65% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Costa
RND
Nicoll
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Costa · Last 5
W · Sub · R2
Cody DurdenSubmission
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · KO · R1
Matt SchnellKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · KO · R2
Stewart NicollKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
L · KO · R3
Alden CoriaKO/TKO
Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
W · KO · R2
Kevin BorjasKO/TKO
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
Nicoll · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Alden CoriaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · 2026-07
L · KO · R2
Alessandro CostaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Lucas RochaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Sub · R1
Jesus AguilarSubmission
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08