UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
Dallas, USA
13 May 2017
Women's Strawweight
VS
24%
Aguilar
76%
Casey
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JA
Jessica Aguilar
"Jag"
20 – 8
5'3"63" reachOrthodox44 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 9
CC
Cortney Casey
"Cast Iron"
10 – 10
Well-Rounded39 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'7"
CFR 28

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Casey

Casey is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Casey has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.

Aguilar has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Aguilar
Casey
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"
Height
+5'7"
63"
Reach
+67"
44
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Aguilar
Casey
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
8.6
27.5
23.0
Performance Avg
40.3
25
Quality of Victory
41
15
Momentum Score
73
Aguilar
Casey
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
1.7
54%
Strike Accuracy
39%
0.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
26
4
Body
4
5
Leg
1
RangeRange
12Distance20
7Clinch11
1Ground0
Aguilar
Casey
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.9
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Aguilar
Casey
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
82
72
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/28 fights
Chin rating based on
15/20 fights
Aguilar
Casey
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
15
73
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
Aguilar
Casey
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Aguilar
Casey
Striking0.4 / 2.5Volume8.4 / 4.8Grappling2.4 / 3.9Wrestling1.7 / 2.7Submission0.0 / 3.3Pressure0.6 / 4.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.9
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
0.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
8.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
Aguilar
Strike Zones
Casey
Aguilar
Attacking
11HEAD4BODY5LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
26HEAD4BODY1LEGS31 absorbed
Casey
Attacking
26HEAD4BODY1LEGS31 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD4BODY5LEGS20 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Aguilar targets the head (55% of attacks) — Casey absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Casey targets the head (84% of attacks) — Aguilar absorbs 84% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Aguilar
RND
Casey
0/0R00/0

Aguilar · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.5L5.5L4.5W3.3L6.2L2015-082017-052018-072018-112019-03
WinLossTrend

Casey · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0105.7L5.5L5.0W5.0W5.5L4.5W5.5L5.5L4.6W5.5L5.0W5.2L6.1L4.5W5.5L2015-072016-112018-082021-032022-07
WinLossTrend

Aguilar · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Marina RodriguezRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje · 2019-03
L · Sub · R1
Zhang WeiliRating 3.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2 · 2018-11
W · Dec · R3
Jodie EsquibelRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07
L · Dec · R3
Cortney CaseyRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos · 2017-05
L · Dec · R3
Claudia GadelhaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia · 2015-08

Casey · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Antonina ShevchenkoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · 2022-07
W · Dec · R3
Liana JojuaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · 2021-11
L · Dec · R3
JJ AldrichRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad · 2021-03
L · Sub · R3
Gillian RobertsonRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov · 2020-06
W · Sub · R1
Mara Romero BorellaRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · 2020-05

News & Media

Jessica Aguilar · Cortney Casey
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