METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
Dallas, USA
13 May 2017
Women's Strawweight
VS
24%
Aguilar
76%
Casey
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JA
Jessica Aguilar
"Jag"
20 – 8
5'3"63" reachOrthodox44 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 9
CC
Cortney Casey
"Cast Iron"
10 – 10
Well-Rounded39 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'7"
CFR 28
★ Official Result
Cortney CaseywinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Jessica Aguilar · UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Casey
→
Actual result
Casey wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis

Casey is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Casey has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
AguilarCasey
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Aguilar
Casey
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"
Height
+5'7"
63"
Reach
+67"
44
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Aguilar
Casey
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
8.6
27.5
23.0
Performance Avg
40.3
25
Quality of Victory
41
15
Momentum Score
73
Aguilar
Casey
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.4
/ 10
2.5
/ 10
0.6
Style: Pressure
4.7
8.4
Style: Volume
4.8
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
26
4
Body
4
5
Leg
1
RangeRange
12Distance20
7Clinch11
1Ground0
Aguilar
Casey
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
3.9
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Aguilar
Casey
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
82
72
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/28 fights
Chin rating based on
15/20 fights
Aguilar
Casey
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
15
73
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
Aguilar
Casey
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Aguilar
Casey
Striking0.4 / 2.5Volume8.4 / 4.8Grappling2.4 / 3.9Wrestling1.7 / 2.7Submission0.0 / 3.3Pressure0.6 / 4.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.9
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
0.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
8.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
Aguilar
Strike Zones
Casey
Aguilar
Attacking
11HEAD4BODY5LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
26HEAD4BODY1LEGS31 absorbed
Casey
Attacking
26HEAD4BODY1LEGS31 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD4BODY5LEGS20 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Aguilar targets the head (55% of attacks) — Casey absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Casey targets the head (84% of attacks) — Aguilar absorbs 84% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Aguilar
RND
Casey
0/0R00/0

Aguilar · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Marina Rodriguez
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje · 2019-03
L · Sub · R1
Zhang Weili
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2 · 2018-11
W · Dec · R3
Jodie Esquibel
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07
L · Dec · R3
Cortney Casey
Decision
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos · 2017-05
L · Dec · R3
Claudia Gadelha
Decision
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia · 2015-08

Casey · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Antonina Shevchenko
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · 2022-07
W · Dec · R3
Liana Jojua
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · 2021-11
L · Dec · R3
JJ Aldrich
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad · 2021-03
L · Sub · R3
Gillian Robertson
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov · 2020-06
W · Sub · R1
Mara Romero Borella
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · 2020-05

News & Media

Jessica Aguilar · Cortney Casey
← Back to fights
DAFABETBet on UFC & MMA · Competitive odds on every main card
18+ · Gamble ResponsiblyBET NOW ↗
🥊 Bet Now
Our trusted bookmakers
Trusted Bookmakers
⚡
Cloudbet
Crypto sports betting
CRYPTO
🎁 New customer offer: 100% up to 5 BTC welcome bonus
BET NOW→
🎯
Dafabet
MMA & UFC specialist
SPORTS
🎁 New customer offer: Competitive odds on every main card
BET NOW→
18+ · Gamble Responsibly. Odds shown are best available and subject to change. Combatrics may earn commission from bookmaker links. If gambling is affecting you, visit BeGambleAware.org.
🥊
Combatrics Support
Online · Usually replies quickly

👋 Got a question about a fighter, stat or fight? Drop us a message and we'll get back to you.

Combatrics

Powered by Combatrics · We typically reply within a few hours