UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
Milwaukee, USA
31 Aug 2013
Featherweight
VS
24%
Koch
76%
Poirier
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
EK
Erik Koch
"Phoenix"
16 – 6
5'10"71" reachSouthpaw37 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 19
Dustin
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
30 – 10
Well-Rounded2-fight slide37 yrsSouthpaw72" reach5'9"
CFR 61

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Poirier

Poirier is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Poirier has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Koch's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Poirier has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Koch
Poirier
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
71"
Reach
+72"
37
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Koch
Poirier
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.2
61.4
46.3
Performance Avg
58.2
44
Quality of Victory
50
84
Momentum Score
100
Koch
Poirier
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.7
42%
Strike Accuracy
54%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
10 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
4
3
Body
4
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance2
4Clinch6
6Ground0
Koch
Poirier
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.2
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Koch
Poirier
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/22 fights
Chin rating based on
32/40 fights
Koch
Poirier
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
100
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
Koch
Poirier
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
64%
2
KO / TKO Wins
10
1
Submission Wins
4
2
Decision Wins
8

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Koch
Poirier
Striking5.0 / 6.0Volume4.2 / 4.0Grappling2.6 / 2.2Wrestling1.8 / 1.6Submission2.0 / 1.8Pressure5.7 / 6.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.8
5.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.6
4.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
Koch
Strike Zones
Poirier
Koch
Attacking
11HEAD3BODY1LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD4BODY0LEGS8 absorbed
Poirier
Attacking
4HEAD4BODY0LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD3BODY1LEGS15 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Koch targets the head (73% of attacks) — Poirier absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Poirier targets the head (50% of attacks) — Koch absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Koch
RND
Poirier
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0

Koch · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.0W4.5W2.8L6.8L5.0W1.5L5.2W6.0L6.2L4.5W2011-032013-082016-052019-07
WinLossTrend

Poirier · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W4.5W5.2W6.1W3.9L5.0W6.0L4.5W5.0W5.2W3.5L6.0W5.0W4.5W5.7W1.6L4.9W5.2W6.9W5.1W5.6W2.8L5.4W7.1W6.0W4.2L6.3W3.7L6.9W6.0L6.6L2011-012013-122017-022021-072025-07
WinLossTrend

Koch · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Kyle StewartRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
King GreenRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 · 2018-01
L · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
W · Sub · R2
Shane CampbellRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
L · KO · R1
Daron CruickshankRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · 2014-05

Poirier · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Sub · R5
Islam MakhachevRating 6
Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 6.9
KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · KO · R2
Justin GaethjeRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Sub · R3
Michael ChandlerRating 6.3
Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11

News & Media

Erik Koch · Dustin Poirier
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