METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
Milwaukee, USA
31 Aug 2013
Featherweight
VS
24%
Koch
76%
Poirier
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Dustin PoirierwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Erik Koch · UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Poirier
→
Actual result
Poirier wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Poirier is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Koch's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Poirier has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
KochPoirier
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Koch
Poirier
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
71"
Reach
+72"
37
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Koch
Poirier
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.2
61.4
46.3
Performance Avg
58.2
44
Quality of Victory
50
84
Momentum Score
100
Koch
Poirier
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.0
/ 10
6.0
/ 10
5.7
Style: Pressure
6.6
4.2
Style: Volume
4.0
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
10 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
4
3
Body
4
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance2
4Clinch6
6Ground0
Koch
Poirier
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.6
/ 10
2.2
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.6
2.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.8
1
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Koch
Poirier
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/22 fights
Chin rating based on
32/40 fights
Koch
Poirier
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
100
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
Koch
Poirier
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
64%
2
KO / TKO Wins
10
1
Submission Wins
4
2
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Koch
Poirier
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.8
5.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.6
4.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
KochPoirier
Strike Zones
Koch
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedPoirier
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Koch targets the head (73% of attacks) — Poirier absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Poirier targets the head (50% of attacks) — Koch absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Koch
RND
Poirier
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Koch · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Kyle StewartDecision
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
King GreenDecision
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 · 2018-01
L · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
W · Sub · R2
Shane CampbellSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
L · KO · R1
Daron CruickshankKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · 2014-05
Poirier · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Max HollowayDecision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Sub · R5
Islam MakhachevSubmission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Benoit Saint DenisKO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · KO · R2
Justin GaethjeKO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Sub · R3
Michael ChandlerSubmission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11