UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
26 Oct 2024
Middleweight
VS
43%
Magomedov
57%
Ferreira
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 3:14
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Ferreira
This is a genuine toss-up — Magomedov at 43% vs Ferreira at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Ferreira has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Striking split: Ferreira throws more volume but Magomedov connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Magomedov's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Ferreira has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Magomedov
Ferreira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
5'10"
78"+
Reach
72"
35
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Magomedov
Ferreira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.4
66.1
46.1
Performance Avg
57.5
39
Quality of Victory
51
63
Momentum Score
100
Magomedov
Ferreira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.9
53%
Strike Accuracy
50%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
4
1
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance6
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Magomedov
Ferreira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
3.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.1
2.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Magomedov
Ferreira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
44
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/35 fights
Chin rating based on
10/18 fights
Magomedov
Ferreira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
100
Upcoming
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
Magomedov
Ferreira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
83%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Magomedov
Ferreira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.3
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.1
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.7
MagomedovFerreira
Strike Zones
Magomedov
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedFerreira
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Magomedov targets the head (75% of attacks) — Ferreira absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Ferreira targets the head (57% of attacks) — Magomedov absorbs 57% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Magomedov
RND
Ferreira
0/0R00/0
Magomedov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Ferreira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Magomedov · Last 5
Upcoming
Michal OleksiejczukUFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
L · Sub · R2
Joe PyferRating 4.8Submission
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Michel PereiraRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
W · Sub · R3
Brunno FerreiraRating 7.1Submission
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Warlley AlvesRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
Ferreira · Last 5
Upcoming
Ikram AliskerovUFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
L · KO · R1
Gregory RodriguesRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Marvin VettoriRating 5.3Decision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Sub · R1
Jackson McVeyRating 6Submission
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · Sub · R2
Armen PetrosyanRating 5.2Submission
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03