UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith
Hamburg, Germany
22 Jul 2018
Light Heavyweight
VS
28%
Ledet
72%
Rakic
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Rakic
Rakic is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 23 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Rakic has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Ledet's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rakic has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Ledet
Rakic
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"
Height
6'4"
80"+
Reach
78"
37
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ledet
Rakic
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.5
37.5
37.9
Performance Avg
43.8
35
Quality of Victory
37
53
Momentum Score
25
Ledet
Rakic
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.5
35%
Strike Accuracy
50%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.4
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
20
0
Body
3
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance3
0Clinch2
0Ground19
Ledet
Rakic
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.3
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ledet
Rakic
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
30
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/13 fights
Chin rating based on
11/20 fights
Ledet
Rakic
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
53
25
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Ledet
Rakic
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
33%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ledet
Rakic
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.4
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.0
6.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.4
LedetRakic
Strike Zones
Ledet
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedRakic
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ledet targets the head (100% of attacks) — Rakic absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Rakic targets the head (83% of attacks) — Ledet absorbs 83% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ledet
RND
Rakic
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Ledet · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Rakic · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Ledet · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Dustin JacobyRating 2.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva · 2020-10
L · Dec · R3
Aleksa CamurRating 5.5Decision
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01
L · KO · R1
Johnny WalkerRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · 2019-02
L · Dec · R3
Aleksandar RakicRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith · 2018-07
W · Dec · R3
Azunna AnyanwuRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · 2017-09
Rakic · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Azamat MurzakanovRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Magomed AnkalaevRating 7Decision
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
L · KO · R2
Jiri ProchazkaRating 4.4KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
L · KO · R3
Jan BlachowiczRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05
W · Dec · R3
Thiago SantosRating 4.5Decision
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · 2021-03