UFC 94: St-Pierre vs Penn 2
Las Vegas, USA
31 Jan 2009
Light Heavyweight
VS
81%
Jones
19%
Bonnar
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Jones
Jones is a strong favourite at 81% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 54 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Jones has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.
Jones has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Bonnar has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Jones
Bonnar
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"
Height
6'4"
84"+
Reach
79"
38+
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Jones
Bonnar
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
70.9
16.5
74.6
Performance Avg
45.2
61
Quality of Victory
40
100
Momentum Score
48
Jones
Bonnar
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.0
58%
Strike Accuracy
43%
4.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
6 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
10
3
Body
4
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
1Distance4
5Clinch13
1Ground0
Jones
Bonnar
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.2
2.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Jones
Bonnar
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
66
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/29 fights
Chin rating based on
15/24 fights
Jones
Bonnar
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
48
19-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · R3
Jones
Bonnar
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
50%
6
KO / TKO Wins
2
6
Submission Wins
2
10
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Jones
Bonnar
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.1
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
JonesBonnar
Strike Zones
Jones
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedBonnar
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Jones targets the head (57% of attacks) — Bonnar absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Bonnar targets the head (59% of attacks) — Jones absorbs 59% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Jones
RND
Bonnar
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Jones · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Bonnar · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Jones · Last 5
W · KO · R3
Stipe MiocicRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
W · Sub · R1
Ciryl GaneRating 6.8Submission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
W · Dec · R5
Dominick ReyesRating 5.5Decision
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes · 2020-02
W · Dec · R5
Thiago SantosRating 4.5Decision
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
W · Dec · R5
Anthony SmithRating 5.7Decision
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · 2019-03
Bonnar · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Anderson SilvaRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar · 2012-10
W · Dec · R3
Kyle KingsburyRating 4.5Decision
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson · 2011-11
W · Dec · R3
Igor PokrajacRating 4.5Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP vs Team Koscheck Finale · 2010-12
W · KO · R2
Krzysztof SoszynskiRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin · 2010-07
L · R3
Krzysztof SoszynskiRating 5.5UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez · 2010-02