METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
Ortiz vs Shamrock 3: The Final Chapter
Hollywood, USA
10 Oct 2006
Welterweight
VS
66%
Davis
34%
Petz
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:58
MD
CFR 19
★ Official Result
Marcus DaviswinsSubmissionR1 · 4:58
def. Forrest Petz · Ortiz vs Shamrock 3: The Final Chapter
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Davis
→
Actual result
Davis wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Davis holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Petz has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Davis has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 23 points.
Davis has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Davis's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Petz has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
DavisPetz
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Davis
Petz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
70"
Reach
+71"
52
Age
+50
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Davis
Petz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.7
9.7
52.8
Performance Avg
26.4
48
Quality of Victory
25
56
Momentum Score
30
Davis
Petz
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.4
0.8
42%
Strike Accuracy
26%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.6
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
2
8
Body
2
8
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance1
20Clinch4
8Ground0
Davis
Petz
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.1
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
2.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
4.4
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
4
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Davis
Petz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
60
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/33 fights
Chin rating based on
7/36 fights
Davis
Petz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
30
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Davis
Petz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
78%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Davis
Petz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.6
4.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
4.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.9
3.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.6
DavisPetz
Strike Zones
Davis
Attacking
33 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedPetz
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
33 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Davis targets the head (52% of attacks) — Petz absorbs 52% of strikes there
🎯Petz targets the head (40% of attacks) — Davis absorbs 40% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Davis
RND
Petz
0/0R00/0
Davis · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Petz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Davis · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Jeremy StephensRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC 125: Resolution · 2011-01
L · Sub · R3
Nate DiazRating 4Submission
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2 · 2010-08
W · KO · R2
Jonathan GouletRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2 · 2010-05
L · KO · R1
Ben SaundersRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 106: Ortiz vs Griffin 2 · 2009-11
L · Dec · R3
Dan HardyRating 5.5Decision
UFC 99: The Comeback · 2009-06
Petz · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Brian FosterRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs Palhares · 2010-09
L · Dec · R3
Daniel RobertsRating 5.5Decision
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin · 2010-07
L · Dec · R3
Joshua BurkmanRating 5.5Decision
UFC 77: Hostile Territory · 2007-10
W · Dec · R3
Luigi FioravantiRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Stout vs Fisher · 2007-06
L · Dec · R3
Kuniyoshi HironakaRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Stevenson vs Guillard · 2007-04