UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales
Las Vegas, USA
17 May 2025
Women's Strawweight
VS
58%
Pennington
42%
Pinheiro
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pennington
This is a genuine toss-up — Pennington at 58% vs Pinheiro at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pennington has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Pinheiro has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Pennington
Pinheiro
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'1"
Height
+5'2"
60"
Reach
+62"
36
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pennington
Pinheiro
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.8
35.6
39.8
Performance Avg
33.1
28
Quality of Victory
27
89
Momentum Score
49
Pennington
Pinheiro
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.1
51%
Strike Accuracy
41%
1.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
1
6
Body
0
5
Leg
3
RangeRange
18Distance4
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Pennington
Pinheiro
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Pennington
Pinheiro
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
62
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/23 fights
Chin rating based on
7/16 fights
Pennington
Pinheiro
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
89
49
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Pennington
Pinheiro
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
9%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
10
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pennington
Pinheiro
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.3
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.2
PenningtonPinheiro
Strike Zones
Pennington
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedPinheiro
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pennington targets the head (42% of attacks) — Pinheiro absorbs 42% of strikes there
🎯Pinheiro targets the legs (75% of attacks) — Pennington absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pennington
RND
Pinheiro
0/0R00/0
Pennington · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Pinheiro · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Pennington · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Denise GomesRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Luana PinheiroRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Carla EsparzaRating 4.8Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Tabatha RicciRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Mackenzie DernRating 6.7Decision
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04
Pinheiro · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Tecia PenningtonRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Gillian RobertsonRating 6.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · Sub · R2
Angela HillRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
L · KO · R3
Amanda RibasRating 4.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11
W · Dec · R3
Michelle Waterson-GomezRating 4.5Decision
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04