UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates
Perth, Australia
2 May 2026
Flyweight
VS
44%
Elliott
56%
Erceg
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Tim
Tim Elliott
22 – 14
5'7"66" reachSouthpaw39 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 37
Steve
Steve Erceg
"Astroboy"
14 – 4
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak30 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'8"
CFR 46

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Erceg

This is a genuine toss-up — Elliott at 44% vs Erceg at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Elliott throws more volume but Erceg connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Elliott's chin rating of 26 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Elliott
Erceg
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
66"
Reach
+68"
39
Age
+30
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Elliott
Erceg
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
36.8
46.4
37.9
Performance Avg
43.6
33
Quality of Victory
31
43
Momentum Score
60
Elliott
Erceg
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.3
44%
Strike Accuracy
50%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
57
2
Body
8
8
Leg
0
RangeRange
24Distance64
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Elliott
Erceg
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.9
2.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Elliott
Erceg
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
26
74
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/36 fights
Chin rating based on
8/18 fights
Elliott
Erceg
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
60
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
Elliott
Erceg
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
30%
20%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Elliott
Erceg
Striking0.9 / 3.3Volume6.5 / 7.7Grappling4.1 / 1.9Wrestling2.9 / 1.3Submission3.0 / 0.0Pressure3.5 / 3.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
4.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.9
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
3.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.3
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.7
Elliott
Strike Zones
Erceg
Elliott
Attacking
14HEAD2BODY8LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
57HEAD8BODY0LEGS65 absorbed
Erceg
Attacking
57HEAD8BODY0LEGS65 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD2BODY8LEGS24 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Elliott targets the head (58% of attacks) — Erceg absorbs 58% of strikes there
🎯Erceg targets the head (88% of attacks) — Elliott absorbs 88% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Elliott
RND
Erceg
0/0R00/0

Elliott · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L1.5L5.5L5.5L4.5W1.5L5.2W2.6L5.5L3.5L4.5W4.5W5.7L5.6W4.6W5.4L5.6W5.2W6.1L2012-052016-122020-052023-102026-05
WinLossTrend

Erceg · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W5.9W5.4W6.8L2.4L6.4L5.3W4.6W2023-062024-032024-082025-082026-05
WinLossTrend

Elliott · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Steve ErcegRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
W · Sub · R2
Kai AsakuraRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · Sub · R1
SumudaerjiRating 5.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
Muhammad MokaevRating 5.4
Submission
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
W · Dec · R3
Victor AltamiranoRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06

Erceg · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Tim ElliottRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Ode OsbourneRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · Dec · R5
Brandon MorenoRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · KO · R1
Kai Kara-FranceRating 2.4
KO/TKO
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · Dec · R5
Alexandre PantojaRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05

News & Media

Tim Elliott · Steve Erceg
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