UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
1 Aug 2015
Heavyweight
VS
52%
Struve
48%
Nogueira
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
SS
Stefan Struve
"Skyscraper"
33 – 13
6'11"84" reachOrthodox38 yrs2-fight slidePressure Fighter
CFR 21
AR
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
"Minotauro"
34 – 10
Well-Rounded3-fight slide49 yrsOrthodox77" reach6'3"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Struve

This is a genuine toss-up — Struve at 52% vs Nogueira at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Struve has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Struve's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Nogueira has a chin rating of 8 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Struve
Nogueira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'11"+
Height
6'3"
84"+
Reach
77"
38+
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Struve
Nogueira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.6
19.4
51.7
Performance Avg
49.3
50
Quality of Victory
52
98
Momentum Score
91
Struve
Nogueira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
1.2
52%
Strike Accuracy
43%
4.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.9
5 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
13
13
Body
5
11
Leg
1
RangeRange
43Distance15
2Clinch4
0Ground0
Struve
Nogueira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.7
4.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.2
2.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Struve
Nogueira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
8
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
8
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/46 fights
Chin rating based on
11/44 fights
Struve
Nogueira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
98
91
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
Struve
Nogueira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
85%
60%
5
KO / TKO Wins
1
6
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Struve
Nogueira
Striking4.9 / 2.9Volume2.3 / 4.1Grappling4.1 / 4.2Wrestling2.8 / 2.9Submission4.6 / 4.0Pressure7.5 / 5.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.9
4.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
4.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
2.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.1
Struve
Strike Zones
Nogueira
Struve
Attacking
21HEAD13BODY11LEGS45 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD5BODY1LEGS19 absorbed
Nogueira
Attacking
13HEAD5BODY1LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD13BODY11LEGS45 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Struve targets the head (47% of attacks) — Nogueira absorbs 47% of strikes there
🎯Nogueira targets the head (68% of attacks) — Struve absorbs 68% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Struve
RND
Nogueira
0/0R00/0

Struve · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0101.5L5.2W5.0W4.5W1.5L5.2W5.0W1.5L5.2W5.2W5.0W6.2W4.0L1.5L4.5W5.5L5.0W5.2W4.0L6.2L5.9L5.9W2.8L1.9L2009-022010-122013-032017-092020-10
WinLossTrend

Nogueira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.5
0104.5W5.2W2.1L4.5W1.5L5.0W1.5L5.2W2.1L1.5L5.5L2007-072009-082011-122014-042015-08
WinLossTrend

Struve · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Tai TuivasaRating 1.9
KO/TKO
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
L · KO · R2
Ben RothwellRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
W · Sub · R2
Marcos Rogerio de LimaRating 5.9
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos · 2019-02
L · Dec · R3
Marcin TyburaRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith · 2018-07
L · Dec · R3
Andrei ArlovskiRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya · 2018-03

Nogueira · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Stefan StruveRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia · 2015-08
L · KO · R1
Roy NelsonRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson · 2014-04
L · Sub · R2
Fabricio WerdumRating 2.1
Submission
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum · 2013-06
W · Sub · R2
Dave HermanRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar · 2012-10
L · Sub · R1
Frank MirRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida · 2011-12

News & Media

Stefan Struve · Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
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