UFC 79: Nemesis
Las Vegas, USA
29 Dec 2007
Welterweight
VS
50%
Carneiro
50%
DeSouza
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:33
RC
Roan Carneiro
"Jucao"
21 – 11
5'11"76" reachOrthodox47 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 16
TD
Tony DeSouza
11 – 4
Well-Rounded2-fight slide51 yrsSouthpaw70" reach6'0"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Carneiro

This is a genuine toss-up — Carneiro at 50% vs DeSouza at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Carneiro throws more volume but DeSouza connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Carneiro's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

DeSouza has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Carneiro
DeSouza
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
76"+
Reach
70"
47+
Age
51
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Carneiro
DeSouza
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.1
15.9
41.6
Performance Avg
46.6
40
Quality of Victory
44
59
Momentum Score
40
Carneiro
DeSouza
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
0.3
44%
Strike Accuracy
52%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
2
0
Body
0
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance0
2Clinch2
12Ground0
Carneiro
DeSouza
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.2
/ 10
6.1
/ 10
2.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
4.3
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
6.7
1
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Carneiro
DeSouza
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
34
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/32 fights
Chin rating based on
6/15 fights
Carneiro
DeSouza
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
40
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
Carneiro
DeSouza
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
67%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Carneiro
DeSouza
Striking3.4 / 1.0Volume4.9 / 3.7Grappling3.2 / 6.1Wrestling2.2 / 4.3Submission2.5 / 6.7Pressure4.8 / 6.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.1
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.3
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.7
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.2
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.7
Carneiro
Strike Zones
DeSouza
Carneiro
Attacking
15HEAD0BODY3LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
DeSouza
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD0BODY3LEGS18 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Carneiro targets the head (83% of attacks) — DeSouza absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯DeSouza targets the head (100% of attacks) — Carneiro absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Carneiro
RND
DeSouza
0/0R00/0

Carneiro · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0104.5W2.8L5.2W2.8L5.5L5.0W1.8L4.5W5.5L2007-042008-062016-022017-02
WinLossTrend

DeSouza · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.8
0104.5W5.0W2.8L5.0W2.8L2.8L2001-052001-062001-092006-102006-122007-12
WinLossTrend

Carneiro · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Ryan LaFlareRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie · 2017-02
W · Dec · R3
Kenny RobertsonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson · 2016-09
L · KO · R1
Derek BrunsonRating 1.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy · 2016-02
W · Sub · R1
Mark MunozRating 5
Submission
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano · 2015-02
L · Dec · R3
Ryo ChonanRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 88: Breakthrough · 2008-09

DeSouza · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Roan CarneiroRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 79: Nemesis · 2007-12
L · KO · R2
Thiago AlvesRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 66: Liddell vs Ortiz 2 · 2006-12
W · Sub · R1
Dustin HazelettRating 5
Submission
Ortiz vs Shamrock 3: The Final Chapter · 2006-10
L · KO · R2
Jutaro NakaoRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 33: Victory in Vegas · 2001-09
W · Sub · R1
Paul RodriguezRating 5
Submission
UFC 32: Showdown in the Meadowlands · 2001-06

News & Media

Roan Carneiro · Tony DeSouza
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