UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum
Fortaleza, Brazil
11 Mar 2017
Women's Bantamweight
VS
52%
Correia
48%
Reneau
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
MR
CFR 24
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Correia
This is a genuine toss-up — Correia at 52% vs Reneau at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Reneau has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Correia has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Correia's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Reneau has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Correia
Reneau
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
+5'6"
64"
Reach
+68"
42+
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Correia
Reneau
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.0
23.5
36.8
Performance Avg
44.1
31
Quality of Victory
46
88
Momentum Score
15
Correia
Reneau
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.3
46%
Strike Accuracy
45%
2.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
38
1
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance9
0Clinch1
0Ground29
Correia
Reneau
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.7
1.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Correia
Reneau
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
66
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/17 fights
Chin rating based on
13/17 fights
Correia
Reneau
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
88
15
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Correia
Reneau
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
80%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Correia
Reneau
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.8
1.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
2.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.4
CorreiaReneau
Strike Zones
Correia
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
39 absorbedReneau
Attacking
39 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Correia targets the head (50% of attacks) — Reneau absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Reneau targets the head (97% of attacks) — Correia absorbs 97% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Correia
RND
Reneau
0/0R00/0
Correia · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Reneau · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Correia · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Karol RosaRating 6.2Decision
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W · Dec · R3
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L · Sub · R3
Irene AldanaRating 4.8Submission
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L · KO · R3
Holly HolmRating 2.9KO/TKO
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Reneau · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Miesha TateRating 4.9KO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
Macy ChiassonRating 6.8Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Raquel PenningtonRating 6.1Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Yana SantosRating 5.6Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Cat ZinganoRating 5.5Decision
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