Ketlen Souza vs Ariane Carnelossi — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim

Las Vegas, USA

6 Jun 2026

Women's Strawweight

52%

Souza

48%

Carnelossi

Win Probability

KO/TKO

Round 1 · 1:34

Ketlen Souza

"Esquentadinha"

16 – 6

5'3"63" reachOrthodox32 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded

CFR 51

Ariane Carnelossi

"Sorriso"

15 – 4

Well-Rounded2-fight slide33 yrsOrthodox61" reach5'2"

CFR 48

★ Official Result

Ketlen SouzawinsKO/TKOR1 · 1:34

def. Ariane Carnelossi · UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Souza

Ariane Carnelossi wins by decision.

→

Actual result

Souza wins

KO/TKO · R1

Pre-fight analysis

A Brazilian strawweight rematch seven years in the making, with Carnelossi seeking to prove her 2019 win was no fluke.

Ariane Carnelossi beat Ketlen Souza via TKO body kick back in 2019, but both fighters have changed dramatically since that regional circuit meeting. The question is who has evolved more. Souza changed training camps ahead of UFC Vegas 113 in February 2026 and delivered a convincing unanimous decision win over Bruna Brasil — her best performance in years. The Luta Livre specialist brings legitimat…

Souza intel

Souza (16-6, CFR 42.9) has quietly won seven of her last nine, most recently over Bruna Brasil in February 2026. Her new camp has improved her overall game and she enters with genuine confidence.

Carnelossi intel

Carnelossi (15-4, CFR 54.8) has not fought cleanly in recent outings — a DQ win followed by a submission stoppage loss. The Alencar loss exposed possible vulnerabilities on the ground that Souza's Luta Livre background could exploit.

Key angles

Carnelossi's chin and composure on the ground vs Souza's Luta Livre

Prior 2019 result provides historical context but limited predictive value

Souza's new camp has visibly improved her consistency

Carnelossi's submission loss to Alencar is a red flag for this matchup

Risk flags

Carnelossi's striking could finish this before the grappling becomes a factor, as she demonstrated in 2019

If the fight stays standing, Souza's volume approach may not generate enough clean scoring shots

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

SouzaCarnelossi

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Souza

Carnelossi

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'3"+

Height

5'2"

63"+

Reach

61"

32+

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Souza

Carnelossi

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

50.9

47.7

47.5

Performance Avg

42.6

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Souza

Carnelossi

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

3.6

/ 10

4.2

/ 10

5.2

Style: Pressure

6.0

5.1

Style: Volume

0.9

1 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

1 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

12Distance8

0Clinch0

1Ground0

Souza

Carnelossi

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

3.2

/ 10

2.7

/ 10

2.2

Wrestling Style (/10)

1.9

2.5

Submission Style (/10)

3.3

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Souza

Carnelossi

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Never stopped

Verdict

Moderate

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

—

KO round context

Avg R1.0 stoppage

—

Last KO loss

Most recent fight

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

7/22 fights

Chin rating based on

7/19 fights

Souza

Carnelossi

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

2-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

2-fight 📉 slide

W · KO · R1

W · Dec · R3

L · Dec · R3

W · Sub · R1

Last 5

L · KO · R1

L · Sub · R3

W · R2

L · Dec · R3

W · Sub · R3

Souza

Carnelossi

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

50%

67%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Souza

Carnelossi

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

3.6

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

4.2

3.2

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

2.7

2.2

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

1.9

2.5

Submission

Submission attack frequency

3.3

5.2

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

6.0

5.1

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

0.9

Souza

Strike Zones

Carnelossi

Souza

Attacking

13 landed

Absorbing

8 absorbed

Carnelossi

Attacking

8 landed

Absorbing

13 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Souza targets the head (85% of attacks) — Carnelossi absorbs 85% of strikes there

🎯Carnelossi targets the head (50% of attacks) — Souza absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Souza

RND

Carnelossi

0/0R00/0

0/0R10/0

Souza · Last 5

W · KO · R1

Ariane Carnelossi

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06

W · Dec · R3

Bruna Brasil

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02

L · Dec · R3

Piera Rodriguez

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08

L · Dec · R3

Angela Hill

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02

W · Sub · R1

Yazmin Jauregui

Submission

UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09

Carnelossi · Last 5

L · KO · R1

Ketlen Souza

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06

L · Sub · R3

Talita Alencar

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11

W · R2

Piera Rodriguez

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05

L · Dec · R3

Loopy Godinez

Decision

UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05

W · Sub · R3

Istela Nunes

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont · 2021-10

News & Media

Ketlen Souza · Ariane Carnelossi

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