METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
Kansas City, USA
15 Apr 2017
Heavyweight
VS
76%
Volkov
24%
Nelson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Alexander VolkovwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Roy Nelson · UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Volkov
→
Actual result
Volkov wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Volkov is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Nelson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.
Risk flags
Volkov's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nelson has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
VolkovNelson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Volkov
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'7"+
Height
6'0"
80"+
Reach
73"
37+
Age
50
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Volkov
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.2
18.5
54.7
Performance Avg
55.6
42
Quality of Victory
61
88
Momentum Score
26
Volkov
Nelson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.8
/ 10
9.8
/ 10
5.7
Style: Pressure
7.6
5.5
Style: Volume
1.8
6 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
8 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
6
17
Body
5
9
Leg
1
RangeRange
43Distance12
5Clinch0
0Ground0
Volkov
Nelson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.8
/ 10
0.3
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.2
0.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Volkov
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
60
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
15 fights ago
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/51 fights
Chin rating based on
19/36 fights
Volkov
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
88
26
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Volkov
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
89%
6
KO / TKO Wins
8
1
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Volkov
Nelson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.8
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.3
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.2
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.6
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.8
VolkovNelson
Strike Zones
Volkov
Attacking
48 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedNelson
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
48 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Volkov targets the head (46% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 46% of strikes there
🎯Nelson targets the head (50% of attacks) — Volkov absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Volkov
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0
Volkov · Last 5
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