UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
Kansas City, USA
15 Apr 2017
Heavyweight
VS
76%
Volkov
24%
Nelson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Volkov
Volkov is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Nelson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.
Volkov has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Volkov's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nelson has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Volkov
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'7"+
Height
6'0"
80"+
Reach
73"
37+
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Volkov
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.2
18.5
54.7
Performance Avg
55.6
42
Quality of Victory
61
88
Momentum Score
26
Volkov
Nelson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
1.0
58%
Strike Accuracy
40%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.8
6 KOs
KO Finishes
8 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
6
17
Body
5
9
Leg
1
RangeRange
43Distance12
5Clinch0
0Ground0
Volkov
Nelson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.8
/ 10
0.3
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.2
0.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Volkov
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
60
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
14 fights ago
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/51 fights
Chin rating based on
19/36 fights
Volkov
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
88
26
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Volkov
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
89%
6
KO / TKO Wins
8
1
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Volkov
Nelson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.8
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.3
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.2
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.6
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.8
VolkovNelson
Strike Zones
Volkov
Attacking
48 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedNelson
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
48 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Volkov targets the head (46% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 46% of strikes there
🎯Nelson targets the head (50% of attacks) — Volkov absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Volkov
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0
Volkov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Nelson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Volkov · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 6Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Jailton AlmeidaRating 6.3Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Ciryl GaneRating 7.2Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Sergei PavlovichRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
W · Sub · R2
Tai TuivasaRating 5.7Submission
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
Nelson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovRating 6.8Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · 2017-04
W · KO · R2
Antonio SilvaRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · 2016-09
L · Dec · R3
Derrick LewisRating 6.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
W · Dec · R3
Jared RosholtRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02
L · Dec · R5
Josh BarnettRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09