UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
Glendale, USA
12 Jun 2021
Welterweight
VS
62%
Edwards
38%
Diaz
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Edwards
Edwards holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Diaz has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Diaz has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Striking split: Diaz throws more volume but Edwards connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Edwards's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Diaz has a chin rating of 58 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Edwards
Diaz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'0"
74"
Reach
+76"
34+
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Edwards
Diaz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.4
35.3
51.1
Performance Avg
53.4
36
Quality of Victory
50
95
Momentum Score
100
Edwards
Diaz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.9
56%
Strike Accuracy
50%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.4
3 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
28
2
Body
3
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
16Distance25
0Clinch6
0Ground0
Edwards
Diaz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.6
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Edwards
Diaz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
58
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/28 fights
Chin rating based on
27/35 fights
Edwards
Diaz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
95
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
L · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Edwards
Diaz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
75%
3
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
10
10
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Edwards
Diaz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.4
2.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.6
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.9
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.3
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
7.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.2
EdwardsDiaz
Strike Zones
Edwards
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedDiaz
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Edwards targets the head (69% of attacks) — Diaz absorbs 69% of strikes there
🎯Diaz targets the head (90% of attacks) — Edwards absorbs 90% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Edwards
RND
Diaz
0/0R00/0
Edwards · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Diaz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Edwards · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Carlos PratesRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
L · Sub · R4
Sean BradyRating 4.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
L · Dec · R5
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 5.8Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 5.6Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
Diaz · Last 5
W · Sub · R4
Tony FergusonRating 5.9Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
L · R3
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.8UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
W · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisRating 4.5Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
L · Dec · R5
Conor McGregorRating 7.5Decision
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08