Evan Dunham vs Marcus Aurelio — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira

Portland, USA

29 Aug 2009

Lightweight

47%

Dunham

53%

Aurelio

Win Probability

Decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Evan Dunham

18 – 9

5'10"70" reachSouthpaw44 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded

CFR 16

Marcus Aurelio

"Maximus"

22 – 10

Pressure Fighter3-fight slide53 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'10"

CFR 18

★ Official Result

Evan DunhamwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00

def. Marcus Aurelio · UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Aurelio

→

Actual result

Dunham wins

Decision · R3

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Dunham at 47% vs Aurelio at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Aurelio has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 27 points.

Risk flags

Dunham's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

DunhamAurelio

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Dunham

Aurelio

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'10"

Height

5'10"

70"

Reach

+74"

44+

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

Dunham

Aurelio

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

16.2

18.4

40.1

Performance Avg

47.5

Quality of Victory

100

Momentum Score

Dunham

Aurelio

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

2.0

/ 10

5.7

/ 10

2.9

Style: Pressure

8.0

6.9

Style: Volume

0.7

1 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

1 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

15Distance5

1Clinch0

1Ground1

Dunham

Aurelio

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

2.5

/ 10

4.0

/ 10

1.7

Wrestling Style (/10)

2.8

0.9

Submission Style (/10)

5.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Dunham

Aurelio

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

2 consec. KOs

Verdict

Never stopped

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.3 stoppage

KO round context

—

1 fight ago

Last KO loss

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

21/27 fights

Chin rating based on

6/32 fights

Dunham

Aurelio

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

3-fight 📉 slide

Current form

3-fight 📉 slide

L · Sub · R1

L · KO · R2

L · KO · R1

Upcoming

W · Dec · R3

Last 5

L · Dec · R3

W · Sub · R1

W · KO · R1

Dunham

Aurelio

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

18%

100%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Dunham

Aurelio

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

2.0

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

5.7

2.5

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

4.0

1.7

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

2.8

0.9

Submission

Submission attack frequency

5.0

2.9

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

8.0

6.9

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

0.7

Dunham

Strike Zones

Aurelio

Dunham

Attacking

17 landed

Absorbing

6 absorbed

Aurelio

Attacking

6 landed

Absorbing

17 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Dunham targets the head (94% of attacks) — Aurelio absorbs 94% of strikes there

🎯Aurelio targets the head (100% of attacks) — Dunham absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Dunham

RND

Aurelio

0/0R00/0

0/0R10/0

Dunham · Last 5

L · Sub · R1

Herbert Burns

Submission

UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · 2020-06

L · KO · R2

Francisco Trinaldo

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09

L · KO · R1

Olivier Aubin-Mercier

KO/TKO

UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04

Upcoming

Beneil Dariush

Decision

UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · 2017-10

W · Dec · R3

Ricky Glenn

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson · 2016-09

Aurelio · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Evan Dunham

Decision

UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira · 2009-08

L · Dec · R3

Hermes Franca

Decision

UFC 90: Silva vs Cote · 2008-10

L · Dec · R3

Tyson Griffin

Decision

UFC 86: Jackson vs Griffin · 2008-07

W · Sub · R1

Ryan Roberts

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Lauzon · 2008-04

W · KO · R1

Luke Caudillo

KO/TKO

UFC 78: Validation · 2007-11

News & Media

Evan Dunham · Marcus Aurelio

← Back to fights