UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira
Portland, USA
29 Aug 2009
Lightweight
VS
47%
Dunham
53%
Aurelio
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
ED
Evan Dunham
18 – 9
5'10"70" reachSouthpaw44 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 16
MA
Marcus Aurelio
"Maximus"
22 – 10
Pressure Fighter3-fight slide52 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'10"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Aurelio

This is a genuine toss-up — Dunham at 47% vs Aurelio at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Aurelio has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 27 points.

Dunham has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Dunham's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Dunham
Aurelio
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
70"
Reach
+74"
44+
Age
52
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Dunham
Aurelio
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.2
18.4
40.1
Performance Avg
47.5
30
Quality of Victory
57
100
Momentum Score
33
Dunham
Aurelio
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
1.0
41%
Strike Accuracy
34%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
6
0
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
15Distance5
1Clinch0
1Ground1
Dunham
Aurelio
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.5
/ 10
4.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.8
0.9
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
1
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Dunham
Aurelio
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
92
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
4
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/27 fights
Chin rating based on
6/32 fights
Dunham
Aurelio
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
33
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Dunham
Aurelio
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
18%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
1
9
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Dunham
Aurelio
Striking2.0 / 5.7Volume6.9 / 0.7Grappling2.5 / 4.0Wrestling1.7 / 2.8Submission0.9 / 5.0Pressure2.9 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.8
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
2.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
6.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
Dunham
Strike Zones
Aurelio
Dunham
Attacking
16HEAD0BODY1LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD0BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Aurelio
Attacking
6HEAD0BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD0BODY1LEGS17 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Dunham targets the head (94% of attacks) — Aurelio absorbs 94% of strikes there
🎯Aurelio targets the head (100% of attacks) — Dunham absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Dunham
RND
Aurelio
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Dunham · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0105.0W4.5W5.5W4.5W5.5L1.5L4.5W4.2W5.5L4.5W5.7L2.8L2.0L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.6W1.5L2.8L1.9L2009-022011-012013-052015-122020-06
WinLossTrend

Aurelio · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0106.0L5.0W5.0W5.5L5.5L5.5L2007-082007-112008-042008-072008-102009-08
WinLossTrend

Dunham · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Herbert BurnsRating 1.9
Submission
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · 2020-06
L · KO · R2
Francisco TrinaldoRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · KO · R1
Olivier Aubin-MercierRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
Upcoming
Beneil Dariush
Decision
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · 2017-10
W · Dec · R3
Ricky GlennRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson · 2016-09

Aurelio · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Evan DunhamRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira · 2009-08
L · Dec · R3
Hermes FrancaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 90: Silva vs Cote · 2008-10
L · Dec · R3
Tyson GriffinRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 86: Jackson vs Griffin · 2008-07
W · Sub · R1
Ryan RobertsRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Lauzon · 2008-04
W · KO · R1
Luke CaudilloRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 78: Validation · 2007-11

News & Media

Evan Dunham · Marcus Aurelio
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