★ Championship Bout · Welterweight
UFC 40: Vendetta
Las Vegas, USA
22 Nov 2002
Welterweight
VS
67%
Hughes
33%
Castillo
Win Probability
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Hughes
Hughes holds a meaningful edge at 67% per the CFR ratings — but Castillo has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Hughes has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 35 points.
Hughes has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Hughes's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Hughes
Castillo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
73"
Reach
52+
Age
60
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Hughes
Castillo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
23.0
11.3
64.6
Performance Avg
28.3
60
Quality of Victory
25
100
Momentum Score
33
Hughes
Castillo
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.3
56%
Strike Accuracy
54%
4.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
6 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
1
6
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance1
0Clinch0
18Ground0
Hughes
Castillo
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Hughes
Castillo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
96
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
4
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/54 fights
Chin rating based on
3/13 fights
Hughes
Castillo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
33
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Hughes
Castillo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
61%
0%
6
KO / TKO Wins
0
5
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hughes
Castillo
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
2.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
HughesCastillo
Strike Zones
Hughes
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedCastillo
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hughes targets the head (64% of attacks) — Castillo absorbs 64% of strikes there
🎯Castillo targets the head (100% of attacks) — Hughes absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hughes
RND
Castillo
0/0R00/0
Hughes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Castillo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Hughes · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Josh KoscheckRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage · 2011-09
L · KO · R1
BJ PennRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · 2010-11
W · Sub · R1
Ricardo AlmeidaRating 5Submission
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen · 2010-08
W · KO · R3
Renzo GracieRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 112: Invincible · 2010-04
W · Dec · R3
Matt SerraRating 4.5Decision
UFC 98: Evans vs Machida · 2009-05
Castillo · Last 3
L · R1
Matt HughesRating 4UFC 40: Vendetta · 2002-11
W · Dec · R3
Chris BrennanRating 4.5Decision
UFC 35: Throwdown · 2002-01
L · Dec · R5
Dave MenneRating 5.5Decision
UFC 33: Victory in Vegas · 2001-09